IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ubgc50/161772.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Partial Equilibrium Model As A Tool For Policy Analysis In Agriculture: An Empirical Evidence Of Macedonia

Author

Listed:
  • Kotevska, Ana
  • Dimitrievski, Dragi
  • Erjavec, Emil

Abstract

Agricultural sector modeling based on partial equilibrium modelling of the supply and demand has become standard approach in the market outlooks and policy impact studies. The model builders and users reveal many pros and cons of the process and results of modelling. The Macedonian experience confirms some typical obstacles and at the same time faces some new ones with a local perspective. The paper provides a summary of the milestones in modelling the partial equilibrium model for the livestock-feed sector in Macedonia with main focus on the obstacles and limitations in the process. This experience is expected to be useful for the countries in the Western Balkan region planning to build a sector models based on partial equilibrium concept as a policy analysis tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotevska, Ana & Dimitrievski, Dragi & Erjavec, Emil, 2013. "Partial Equilibrium Model As A Tool For Policy Analysis In Agriculture: An Empirical Evidence Of Macedonia," 50th Anniversary Seminar, Agriculture and Rural Development -Challenges of Transition and Integration Processes, September 27, 2013 161772, University of Belgrade, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubgc50:161772
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.161772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/161772/files/03-Kotevska-Finall.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.161772?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Dol, Wietse & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-6.
    2. Allen, P. Geoffrey, 1994. "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 81-135, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mesay Yami & Ferdi Meyer & Rashid Hassan, 2020. "The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Ijambo, Bertha Deshimona, 2017. "An econometric analysis of spatial market integration and price formation in the Namibian sheep industry," Research Theses 334744, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Tala H. Qtaishat & Mohammad S. El-Habbab & Dan P. Bumblauskas, 2019. "Welfare Economic Analysis of Lifting Water Subsidies for Banana Farms in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-10, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    2. Covey, Theodore & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2003. "Evaluating USDA Forecasts of Farm Assets: 1986-2002," 2003 Regional Committee NCT-194, October 6-7, 2003; Kansas City, Missouri 132405, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    3. Paroissien, Emmanuel, 2020. "Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 292-309.
    4. Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koc & Gulden Boluk, 2012. "EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(2), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    6. Li, Anzhi & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2014. "Composite Qualitative Forecasting of Futures Prices: Using One Commodity to Help Forecast Another," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169790, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Cameron, Andrew & Nelson, Rohan, 2022. "Enabling Users to Evaluate the Accuracy of ABARES Agricultural Forecasts," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 30(7), November.
    8. Petra Salamon & Martin Banse & Jesus Barreiro Hurle & Ondrej Chaloupka & Trevor Donnellan & Emil Erjavec & Thomas Fellmann & Kevin Hanrahan & Marlen Hass & Roel Jongeneel & Verena Laquai & Myrna van L, 2017. "Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model," JRC Research Reports JRC109115, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2009. "Do Composite Procedures Really Improve the Accuracy of Outlook Forecasts?," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53052, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    10. Manojit Chattopadhyay & Subrata Kumar Mitra, 2018. "Assessing the predictability of different kinds of models in estimating impacts of climatic factors on food grain availability in India," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 55(1), pages 50-64, March.
    11. Hedtrich, F. & Loy, J.-P. & Müller, R.A.E., 2010. "Prognosen auf Agrarmärkten: Prediction Markets – eine innovative Prognosemethode auch für die Landwirtschaft?," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    12. Ana KOTEVSKA & Dragi DIMITRIVESKI & Emil ERJAVEC, 2013. "Macedonian livestock, dairy and grain sectors and the EU accession impact," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(3), pages 125-133.
    13. Hloušková, Z. & Ženíšková, P. & Prášilová, M., 2018. "Comparison of Agricultural Costs Prediction Approaches," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(1).
    14. Dietz, Sarah N. & Aulerich, Nicole M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 177-191, April.
    15. Guna Salputra & Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver Ledebur, 2013. "The agri-food sector in Russia: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Research Reports JRC76915, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Kwas, Marek & Paccagnini, Alessia & Rubaszek, Michał, 2022. "Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    17. Hloušková, Z. & Lekešová, M. & Slížka, E., 2014. "Microsimulation Model Estimating Czech Farm Income from Farm Accountancy Data Network Database," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, September.
    18. Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad, 2014. "Usda And Private Analysts' Forecasts Of Ending Stocks: How Good Are They?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Guney, Selin, 2015. "An evaluation of price forecasts of the cattle market under structural changes," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205109, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Bjørn Gunnar Hansen & Yushu Li, 2017. "An Analysis of Past World Market Prices of Feed and Milk and Predictions for the Future," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 175-193, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ubgc50:161772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aoubgyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.