IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipt/iptwpa/jrc109115.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model

Author

Listed:
  • Petra Salamon

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Martin Banse

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Jesus Barreiro Hurle

    () (European Commission – JRC)

  • Ondrej Chaloupka

    () (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information)

  • Trevor Donnellan

    () (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC))

  • Emil Erjavec

    () (University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty)

  • Thomas Fellmann

    () (European Commission – JRC)

  • Kevin Hanrahan

    () (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC))

  • Marlen Hass

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Roel Jongeneel

    () (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR))

  • Verena Laquai

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Myrna van Leeuwen

    () (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR))

  • Andras Molnar

    () (Research Institute of Agricultural Economics (AKI))

  • Marie Pechrova

    () (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information)

  • Guna Salputra

    () (European Commission – JRC)

  • Willy Baltussen

    () (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR))

  • Josef Efken

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Sophie Helaine

    () (European Commission – DG AGRI)

  • Jobst Jungehulsing

    () (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany)

  • Oliver Von Ledebur

    () (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany)

  • Ilona Rac

    () (University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty)

  • Fabien Santini

    () (European Commission – DG AGRI)

Abstract

Every year the European Commission provides mid-term projections for agricultural markets. These projections are reported for the EU-28 aggregate and split into EU-15 and EU-N13 to reflect the diversity existing between the pre- and post-2004 Member States. However, the diversity of European agriculture goes beyond these two aggregates. This report presents the results of projections for agricultural markets in the EU Member States by 2026, generated using the AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) model. The projections are consistent with the European Commission's 2016 Mid-Term Outlook and represent production, consumption, yields, and trade for the main commodity groups (cereals, oilseeds, dairy and meats). In addition, the main characteristics of the model and the partnership that manages it are described. The report also provides examples of further analysis that can be performed with AGMEMOD in terms of country- or region-specific developments, focusing on agricultural markets in the EU-N13, and in terms of the relations between a single Member State and the rest of the EU, in this case focusing on the United Kingdom and the EU. Furthermore, an analysis of the implementation of coupled support in the EU Member States is presented. The report finishes with some testimonies of policy makers about the role AGMEMOD plays in their policy analysis, and sketching how AGMEMOD might develop in the mid-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Salamon & Martin Banse & Jesus Barreiro Hurle & Ondrej Chaloupka & Trevor Donnellan & Emil Erjavec & Thomas Fellmann & Kevin Hanrahan & Marlen Hass & Roel Jongeneel & Verena Laquai & Myrna van L, 2017. "Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model," JRC Working Papers JRC109115, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc109115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC109115
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Dol, Wietse & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-6.
    2. Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver von Ledebur & Guna Salputra & Olexandr Nekhay & Robert M'barek, 2012. "The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Working Papers JRC71776, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    3. Erjavec, Emil & Chantreuil, Frédéric & Hanrahan, Kevin & Donnellan, Trevor & Salputra, Guna & Kozar, Maja & van Leeuwen, Myrna, 2011. "Policy assessment of an EU wide flat area CAP payments system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1550-1558, July.
    4. Lubica Bartova & Thomas Fellmann & Robert M'barek, 2009. "Modelling and Analysis of the European Milk and Dairy Market," JRC Working Papers JRC50915, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    5. Poonyth, Daneswar & Westhoff, Patrick & Womack, Abner & Adams, Gary, 2000. "Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 233-245, April.
    6. Johan F. M. Swinnen, 2002. "Transition and Integration in Europe: Implications for Agricultural and Food Markets, Policy, and Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 481-501, April.
    7. Mihaly Himics & Marco Artavia & Sophie Hélaine & Ole Boysen, 2014. "Calibrating the CAPRI and ESIM models to the mid-term commodity market outlook of the European Commission," JRC Working Papers JRC72882, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs, 2012. "The Capitalization of Area Payments into Farmland Rents: Micro Evidence from the New EU Member States," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(4), pages 517-540, December.
    9. Ayşen Tanyeri-Abur & Bruce A. McCarl & Ching-Cheng Chang & Ronald D. Knutson & E. Wesley F. Peterson, Dr. & Keith H. Coble, 1993. "An Analysis of Possible U.S. Sugar Import Policy Revisions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 255-268.
    10. Banse, Martin & Salamon, Petra & Ledebur, Oliver von & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Salputra, Guna & Fellmann, Thomas & Nekhay, Olexandr, 2012. "Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122536, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Robert M'barek & Wolfgang Britz & Alison Burrell & Jacques Delincé, 2012. "An integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) - a look back and the way forward," JRC Working Papers JRC69667, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    12. Guna Salputra & Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver Ledebur, 2013. "The agri-food sector in Russia: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Working Papers JRC76915, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    13. Erjavec, Emil & van Leeuven, Myrna & Regoršek, Darja, 2007. "The Development of CEEC Agricultural Markets After EU Accession," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162402, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:1745-:d:149111 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    AGMEMOD; modelling; agriculture;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc109115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publication Officer). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.