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Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model


  • Petra Salamon

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Martin Banse

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Jesus Barreiro Hurle

    () (European Commission – JRC)

  • Ondrej Chaloupka

    () (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information)

  • Trevor Donnellan

    () (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC))

  • Emil Erjavec

    () (University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty)

  • Thomas Fellmann

    () (European Commission – JRC)

  • Kevin Hanrahan

    () (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC))

  • Marlen Hass

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Roel Jongeneel

    () (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR))

  • Verena Laquai

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Myrna van Leeuwen

    () (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR))

  • Andras Molnar

    () (Research Institute of Agricultural Economics (AKI))

  • Marie Pechrova

    () (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information)

  • Guna Salputra

    () (European Commission – JRC)

  • Willy Baltussen

    () (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR))

  • Josef Efken

    () (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI))

  • Sophie Helaine

    () (European Commission – DG AGRI)

  • Jobst Jungehulsing

    () (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany)

  • Oliver Von Ledebur

    () (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany)

  • Ilona Rac

    () (University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty)

  • Fabien Santini

    () (European Commission – DG AGRI)


Every year the European Commission provides mid-term projections for agricultural markets. These projections are reported for the EU-28 aggregate and split into EU-15 and EU-N13 to reflect the diversity existing between the pre- and post-2004 Member States. However, the diversity of European agriculture goes beyond these two aggregates. This report presents the results of projections for agricultural markets in the EU Member States by 2026, generated using the AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) model. The projections are consistent with the European Commission's 2016 Mid-Term Outlook and represent production, consumption, yields, and trade for the main commodity groups (cereals, oilseeds, dairy and meats). In addition, the main characteristics of the model and the partnership that manages it are described. The report also provides examples of further analysis that can be performed with AGMEMOD in terms of country- or region-specific developments, focusing on agricultural markets in the EU-N13, and in terms of the relations between a single Member State and the rest of the EU, in this case focusing on the United Kingdom and the EU. Furthermore, an analysis of the implementation of coupled support in the EU Member States is presented. The report finishes with some testimonies of policy makers about the role AGMEMOD plays in their policy analysis, and sketching how AGMEMOD might develop in the mid-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Salamon & Martin Banse & Jesus Barreiro Hurle & Ondrej Chaloupka & Trevor Donnellan & Emil Erjavec & Thomas Fellmann & Kevin Hanrahan & Marlen Hass & Roel Jongeneel & Verena Laquai & Myrna van L, 2017. "Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model," JRC Working Papers JRC109115, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc109115

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Dol, Wietse & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-6.
    2. Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver von Ledebur & Guna Salputra & Olexandr Nekhay & Robert M'barek, 2012. "The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Working Papers JRC71776, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    4. Lubica Bartova & Thomas Fellmann & Robert M'barek, 2009. "Modelling and Analysis of the European Milk and Dairy Market," JRC Working Papers JRC50915, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    10. Banse, Martin & Salamon, Petra & Ledebur, Oliver von & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Salputra, Guna & Fellmann, Thomas & Nekhay, Olexandr, 2012. "Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122536, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Robert M'barek & Wolfgang Britz & Alison Burrell & Jacques Delincé, 2012. "An integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) - a look back and the way forward," JRC Working Papers JRC69667, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    12. Guna Salputra & Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver Ledebur, 2013. "The agri-food sector in Russia: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Working Papers JRC76915, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    AGMEMOD; modelling; agriculture;

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