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Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade

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Listed:
  • Xie, Wei
  • Huang, Jikun
  • Wang, Jinxia
  • Cui, Qi
  • Robertson, Ricky
  • Chen, Kevin

Abstract

China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Wei & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Cui, Qi & Robertson, Ricky & Chen, Kevin, 2020. "Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:62:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x18301688
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2018.11.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reilly, John & Hohmann, Neil, 1993. "Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 306-312, May.
    2. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaomeng Cui & Wei Xie, 2022. "Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 249-272, January.
    2. Hengli Wang & Hong Liu & Rui Ma, 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Grain Production Considering Climate Change and Air Pollution in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Yichen Jiang & Fang He & Shihui Li & Hang Lu & Rouran Zhang, 2024. "Contemporary Urban Agriculture in European and Chinese Regions: A Social-Cultural Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Tariq Ali & Bo Zhou & David Cleary & Wei Xie, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change on China and Brazil’s Soybean Trade," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Guojin Chen & Wenpeng Chen & Jiaqi Wang & Xiangqin Zhao, 2023. "High‐temperature exposure risk, corporate performance and pricing efficiency of the stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(3), pages 3553-3583, September.
    6. Nawab Khan & Jiliang Ma & Hazem S. Kassem & Rizwan Kazim & Ram L. Ray & Muhammad Ihtisham & Shemei Zhang, 2022. "Rural Farmers’ Cognition and Climate Change Adaptation Impact on Cash Crop Productivity: Evidence from a Recent Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Ziming Bai & Chenyang Liu & Hongye Wang & Cuixia Li, 2023. "Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Global Dairy Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Abbas Ali Chandio & Yasir A. Nasereldin & Dao Le Trang Anh & Yashuang Tang & Ghulam Raza Sargani & Huaquan Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Technological Progress and Climate Change on Food Crop Production: Evidence from Sichuan—China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Litao Feng & Wei Liu & Zhihui Zhao & Yining Wang, 2023. "Rainfall fluctuations and rural poverty: Evidence from Chinese county‐level data," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 633-656, July.
    10. Shengtian Jin & Zihan Mei & Kaifeng Duan, 2022. "Coupling Coordination of China’s Agricultural Environment and Economy under the New Economic Background," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, August.

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