Does climate risk influence exchange rates?

Climate risk has emerged as a major global challenge with significant implications for the dynamics of exchange rates. By constructing a Climate Physical Risk Index based on extreme weather events across 77 countries from 1993 to 2022, this study examines whether climate shocks affect exchange rates. Fixed-effects models for panel data are employed to assess the cross-national impact of climate risk. The results indicate that climate shocks contribute to currency depreciation, with pronounced effects observed in developing countries, economies characterized by floating exchange rate regimes and those with lower levels of openness, and nations situated in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of the mechanisms reveals that climate risk affects exchange rates through various channels, such as deteriorating current accounts, widening fiscal deficits, hindering economic growth, and reducing total factor productivity. By introducing a cross-national risk index into the process of determining exchange rates, this study expands the intersection of climate economics and international finance. This study highlights significant policy implications for designing change rate regimes, fiscal planning, and enhancing resilience through investment strategies.