IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20161921.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The real exchange rate and economic growth: revisiting the case using external instruments

Author

Listed:
  • Stracca, Livio
  • Mileva, Elitza
  • Habib, Maurizio Michael

Abstract

We investigate the impact of movements in the real exchange rate on economic growth based on five-year average data for a panel of over 150 countries in the post Bretton Woods period. Unlike previous literature, we use external instruments to deal with possible reverse causality from growth to the real exchange rate. Our country-specific instruments are (i) global capital flows interacted with individual countries' financial openness and (ii) the growth rate of official reserves. We ?find that a real appreciation (depreciation) reduces (raises) significantly annual real GDP growth, more than in previous estimates in the literature. However, our results confirm this effect only for developing countries and for pegs. JEL Classification: F31, F43

Suggested Citation

  • Stracca, Livio & Mileva, Elitza & Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2016. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: revisiting the case using external instruments," Working Paper Series 1921, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161921
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1921.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 235-251.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 163-192.
    3. Rodrigo Fuentes & Mauricio Larraín & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Sources of Growth and Behavior of TFP in Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 113-142.
    4. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2012. "Global Financial Safety Nets: Where Do We Go from Here?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 37-68, April.
    5. William Robert Reed, 2015. "On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(6), pages 897-905, December.
    6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Saborowski, Christian, 2014. "Accounting for reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 1-29.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 518-540.
    8. Nouira, Ridha & Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Desperately seeking the positive impact of undervaluation on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 537-552.
    9. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Heng, Dyna, 2011. "Capital flows and real exchange rate: does financial development matter?," MPRA Paper 48553, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2012.
    12. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 652-672.
    13. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 235-251.
    14. Masolo, Riccardo M. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2015. "Identifying noise shocks: a VAR with data revisions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    17. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, EconWPA.
    18. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 518-540.
    19. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 494-513.
    20. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 98-109.
    21. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Exchange-rate regime and economic growth: a review of the theoretical and empirical literature," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-31, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    22. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    24. Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 5-27.
    25. Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 471-494.
    26. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026251799x.
    27. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
    28. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    29. Jonas E. Arias & Dario Caldara & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2014. "The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure," Working Papers 2014-13, FEDEA.
    30. S. Pelin Berkmen & Eduardo Cavallo, 2010. "Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization: What do the Data Reveal about Causality?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 781-795, November.
    31. Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 471-494.
    32. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, July.
    34. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2015. "Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 5-45.
    35. Bellemare, Marc F. & Masaki, Takaaki & Pepinsky, Thomas B., 2015. "Lagged Explanatory Variables and the Estimation of Causal Effects," MPRA Paper 62350, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Feb 2015.
    36. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2008. "Capital Inflows, Dutch Disease Effects, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 971-989, November.
    37. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    38. Atish R Ghosh & Jonathan D Ostry & Mahvash S Qureshi, 2015. "Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 238-276, May.
    39. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 60-87.
    40. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86313, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    41. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    42. Darryl McLeod & Elitza Mileva, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth Surges," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2011-04, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    43. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2011. "Home bias and the persistence of real exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 55-59, January.
    44. Glüzmann, Pablo Alfredo & Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2012. "Exchange rate undervaluation and economic growth: Díaz Alejandro (1965) revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 666-672.
    45. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism And The Learning By Doing Externality," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 324-335, August.
    46. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; instrumental variables; Panel data; real exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.