IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pui/dpaper/18..html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Currency Wars: Who Gains from the Battle?

Author

Listed:
  • Phornchanok Cumperayot

    (Chulalongkorn University)

  • Roy Kouwenberg

    (Mahidol University)

Abstract

We study the growth effects of currency undervaluation when countries employ active exchange rate management policies or impose capital controls, using a panel dataset of 185 countries. Applying two-stage regressions, we find that changes in undervaluation driven by exchange rate management and capital control policies have no significant impact on economic growth. Undervaluation that leads to higher growth mainly stems from policies that lower government consumption, reduce inflation and increase domestic savings. However, these policies are good for growth by themselves, with only limited additional growth effects through increased currency undervaluation. In sum, we find no evidence that battling in the currency depreciation war significantly increases a country's growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Phornchanok Cumperayot & Roy Kouwenberg, 2016. "Currency Wars: Who Gains from the Battle?," PIER Discussion Papers 18., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:18.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pier.or.th/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/pier_dp_018.pdf
    File Function: Published version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2011. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?," IMF Working Papers 2011/165, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Dennis Quinn & Martin Schindler & A Maria Toyoda, 2011. "Assessing Measures of Financial Openness and Integration," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(3), pages 488-522, August.
    6. ., 2012. "Exchange Rate Manipulation in International Economic Law," Chapters, in: International Economic Law and Monetary Measures, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    10. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    11. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 7, pages 205-253, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Mr. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 2010/058, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 121-136, February.
    15. Paulo Gala & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: Old and New Econometric Evidence," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(4), pages 165-187.
    16. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Robust Estimations Of Equilibrium Exchange Rates Within The G20: A Panel Beer Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 608-633, November.
    17. Charles Engel, 2011. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2796-2822, October.
    18. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-2.
    20. Sophie B鲥au & Antonia López Villavicencio & Val鲩e Mignon, 2012. "Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3503-3511, September.
    21. Glüzmann, Pablo Alfredo & Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2012. "Exchange rate undervaluation and economic growth: Díaz Alejandro (1965) revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 666-672.
    22. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    23. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    24. Mr. Peter B. Clark & Mr. Ronald MacDonald, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    27. Pablo Mejia-Reyes & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Modelling real exchange rate effects on output performance in Latin America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2491-2503.
    28. Couharde, Cécile & Sallenave, Audrey, 2013. "How do currency misalignments’ threshold affect economic growth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 106-120.
    29. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    30. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Eichengreen, Barry, 2013. "Currency war or international policy coordination?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 425-433.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    2. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    3. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    4. Carl Grekou, 2015. "Currency misalignments and economic growth: the foreign currency-denominated debt channel," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Couharde, Cécile & Sallenave, Audrey, 2013. "How do currency misalignments’ threshold affect economic growth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 106-120.
    7. Carl Grekou, 2016. "Does the exchange rate regime shape currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Mashkoor, Asim & Ahmed, Ovais & Herani, Dr. Gobin, 2015. "The relationship between Foreign Currency trading and Economic Development: A case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 64482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    10. Mbaye, Samba, 2012. "Currency Undervaluation and Growth: Is there a Productivity Channel?," MPRA Paper 44261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    12. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Crecimiento económico y desalineación del tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: ¿Hay alguna relación? [Economic growth and the real exchange rate misalignments in the Dominican Republic: ," MPRA Paper 70974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    14. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2016. "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Post-Print hal-01549902, HAL.
    15. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    16. DEGUENONVO, Cédric, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignment in Senegal: effect on growth," MPRA Paper 84338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment and total factor productivity growth in case of emerging market economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 547-564, July.
    18. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    19. Estrada, Gemma Esther & Park, Donghyun & Ramayandi, Arief, 2015. "Financial Development, Financial Openness, and Economic Growth," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 442, Asian Development Bank.
    20. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate misalignment; Growth; Undervaluation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:18.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pierbth.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: PIER (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pierbth.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.