Exchange-rate regime and economic growth: a review of the theoretical and empirical literature
The aim of this paper is to examine the theoretical and empirical arguments for the relationship between the exchange-rate regime and economic growth. As a nominal variable, the exchange rate (regime) might not affect the long-run economic growth. However, there is no unambiguous theoretical evidence what impacts the exchange-rate target exhibits on growth. The channel through which the regime might influence growth is trade, investment and productivity. Theoretical considerations relate the exchange-rate effect on growth to the level of uncertainty imposed by flexible option of the rate. However, while reduced policy uncertainty under a peg promotes an environment which is conductive to production factor growth, trade and hence to output, such targets do not provide an adjustment mechanism in times of shocks, thus stimulating protectionist behaviour, price distortion signals and therefore misallocation of resources in the economy. Consequently, the relationship remains blurred and requires in-depth empirical investigation. The empirical research offers divergent result though. A big part of the studies focuses on the parameter of the exchange-rate dummy, but does not appropriately control for other country-characteristics nor apply appropriate growth framework. Also, the issue of endogeneity is not treated at all or inappropriate instruments are repeatedly used. Very few studies disgracedly pay small attention to the capital controls, an issue closely related to the exchange-rate regime and only one study puts the issue in the context of monetary regimes. Overall, the empirical evidence is condemned because of growth-framework, endogeneity, sample-selection bias and the so-called peso problem. An empirical investigation which will consider all those aspects might reveal clear and robust suggestion of the relationship between exchange-rate regime and growth.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Web page: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002.
"Fear of floating,"
14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michele Cavallo, 2005. "To float or not to float? exchange rate regimes and shocks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan7.
- Ramon Moreno, 2001. "Pegging and stabilization policy in developing countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-29.
- Jeannine Bailliu & Robert Lafrance & Jean-François Perrault, 2002.
"Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?,"
02-17, Bank of Canada.
- Sebastián Edwards, 1996. "Economic policy and the dynamics of growth," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 23(2 Year 19), pages 137-155, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995.
"The mirage of fixed exchange rates,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003.
"Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes,"
IMF Working Papers
03/243, International Monetary Fund.
- Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Aasim M. Husain, 2004. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Occasional Papers 229, International Monetary Fund.
- Sanjin Piragic & Kenneth Jameson, 2005. "The determinants of Latin American exchange rate regimes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1465-1474.
- Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke, 2001.
"Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Investment?,"
Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers
20105, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke, 2001. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 578, CESifo Group Munich.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993.
"Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
- Romain Ranciere & Philippe Bacchetta & Philippe Aghion & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005.
"Productivity Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime: The Role of Financial Development,"
214, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Rancière & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development," Economics Working Papers 850, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Emilia Magdalena Jurzyk & Bernhard Fritz-Krockow, 2004. "Will You Buy My Peg? the Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Trade," IMF Working Papers 04/165, International Monetary Fund.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996.
"Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 45-66, Spring.
- S. Fisher & R. Sahay & C. A. Vegh, 1997. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
- Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1996. "Stabilization and growth in transition economies: The early experience," MPRA Paper 20631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies; The Early Experience," IMF Working Papers 96/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Ilker Domac & Kyle Peters & Yevgeny Yuzefovichî, 2003. "Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Inflation? Evidence from Transition Economies," Working Papers 0304, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Paula Hernandez-Verme, 2004.
"Inflation, growth and exchange rate regimes in small open economies,"
Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 839-856, November.
- Hernandez-Verme, Paula, 2002. "Inflation, Growth and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 16699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2009.
- Hongwei Du & Zhen Zhu, 2001. "The effect of exchange-rate risk on exports: Some additional empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 106-121, January.
- Gylfasonabc, Thorvaldur, 2000. "Fix or flex? Alternative exchange rate regimes in an era of global capital mobility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 173-189, December.
- Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004.
"Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe,"
- Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1182, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kristian Nilsson & Lars Nilsson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Export Performance of Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 331-349, 03.
- Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
- Andres Velasco & Roberto Chang, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policy for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 71-75, May.
- Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Cohesion: Historical Perspectives and Political-Economy Considerations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 797-822, December.
- Domac, Ilker & Peters, Kyle & Yuzefovich, Yevgeny, 2001. "Does the exchange rate regime affect macroeconomic performance : evidence from transition economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2642, The World Bank.
- Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:200931. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.