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The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations

Author

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  • Marcus Kappler
  • Helmut Reisen
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Edouard Turkisch

    ()

Abstract

Although currency adjustment is often proposed as a policy tool to reduce current account imbalances, there is no consensus regarding the macroeconomic effects. In this paper we study the macroeconomic aftermath of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries over the period 1960–2008, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations shocks. We use narrative identification of exogenous appreciation episodes and study the macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results indicate that exchange rate appreciations tend to have strong effects on current account balances. Within 3 years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, but the output costs are small and not statistically significant. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:24:y:2013:i:3:p:471-494
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-012-9246-4
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    1. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9457-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Arabinda Basistha & Sheida Teimouri, 2015. "Currency Crises and Output Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 139-153, February.
    3. Erick Lahura & Marco Vega, 2013. "Asymmetric effects of FOREX intervention using intraday data: evidence from Peru," BIS Working Papers 430, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2011. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2011: Aufschwung setzt sich fort - Europäische Schuldenkrise noch ungelöst," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(08), pages 03-63, April.
    5. Gervais, Olivier & Schembri, Lawrence & Suchanek, Lena, 2016. "Current account dynamics, real exchange rate adjustment, and the exchange rate regime in emerging-market economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 86-99.
    6. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance; An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 14/68, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2015. "Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 5-45.
    9. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    10. Christoph Fischer & Oliver Hossfeld & Karin Radeck, 2018. "On the Suitability of Alternative Competitiveness Indicators for Explaining Real Exports of Advanced Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 119-139, February.
    11. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    12. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & Mohammadian, Amirhossein, 2017. "On the Relation between Domestic Output and Exchange Rate in 68 Countries: An Asymmetry Analysis," MPRA Paper 82939, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2017.
    13. Chen Fang & Cheng-te Lee, 2014. "Coexistence of Sustained External Imbalance and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Underlying Fundamentals," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1714-1722.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 2012. "Flexing Your Muscles: Abandoning a Fixed Exchange Rate for Greater Flexibility," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 353-391.
    15. Guangfeng Zhang & Ronald MacDonald, 2014. "Real Exchange Rates, the Trade Balance and Net Foreign Assets: Long-Run Relationships and Measures of Misalignment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 635-653, September.
    16. Sauré, Philip, 2017. "Time-intensive R&D and unbalanced trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 229-244.
    17. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2011. "Die makroökonomischen Effekte ausgeprägter Währungsaufwertungen," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 6-7.
    18. Erler, Alexander & Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2015. "To intervene, or not to intervene: Monetary policy and the costs of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 432-456.
    19. Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Foreign Currency Denominated Assets and International Shock Absorption in Switzerland and Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 5624, CESifo Group Munich.
    20. Teng, Faxin & Meier, Claudia & Kamenev, Dmitry & Klein, Martin, 2011. "Trade integration,restructuring and global imbalances --A tale of two countries," MPRA Paper 31946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Erler, Alexander & Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2014. "Defending against speculative attacks – It is risky, but it can pay off," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 309-330.
    22. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.
    23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2016. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 181-191, September.
    24. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of large exchange rate appreciations and reserves accumulations in selected Asian economies: Is fear of appreciations justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account adjustment; Global imbalances; Exchange rate adjustment; Real exchange rates; F4; F31; F32; N10; O16;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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