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Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again

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  • Menzie D. Chinn

Abstract

The chronic and expanding US trade deficit has refocused attention upon the responsiveness of trade flows to exchange rate and income changes. I estimate import and export equations over a period spanning the 1990s New Economy boom and the subsequent recession and dollar depreciation. The results indicate (1) a low responsiveness of imports to exchange rate changes, and (2) a diminution (but not disappearance) of the income elasticity asymmetry first noted by Houthakker and Magee. The combination of low price elasticity of imports with the present size of the trade deficit means that any reduction of the trade deficit will necessarily be accompanied by large exchange rate and income trend adjustments. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2004

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  • Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 451-469, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:7:y:2004:i:3:p:451-469
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    Cited by:

    1. Knobel, Alexander, 2011. "Estimation of import demand function in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 24(4), pages 3-26.
    2. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    3. Lim, Sokchea & Khun, Channary, 2010. "U.S. Bilateral Trade Deficits with China and Japan: The Role of Japanese Direct Investment," MPRA Paper 30740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 471-494.
    5. Nie, Jun & Taylor, Lisa, 2013. "Economic growth in foreign regions and U.S. export growth," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 31-63.
    6. Bornali Bhandari, 2013. "Cross-Price Effects and US Trade Elasticities," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(3), pages 273-313, August.
    7. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2017. "On Using Exchange Rate for Promoting Exports," PIDE-Working Papers 2017:151, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    8. Charles Engel, 2010. "Exchange rate policies," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 229-250 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Yoko Oguro, 2007. "The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on Export Sensitivity to Exchange Rates," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-222, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. ANDO Mitsuyo & IRIYAMA Akie, 2009. "International Production Networks and Export/Import Responsiveness to Exchange Rates: The case of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 09049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Yoko Oguro & Kyoji Fukao & Yougesh Khatri, 2008. "Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade," IMF Working Papers 08/134, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Bosworth, Barry & Collins, Susan M., 2010. "Rebalancing the US Economy in a Postcrisis World," ADBI Working Papers 236, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2005. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 846, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "Again on trade elasticities: evidence from a selected sample of countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-287, December.
    15. Campbell, Douglas L., 2016. "Measurement matters: Productivity-adjusted weighted average relative price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 45-81.
    16. Miksjuk Alexei, 2011. "Study the relation between monetary and exchange rate policy: The case of Belarus," EERC Working Paper Series 11/16e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    17. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:185-202 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Erdal Ozmen & Duygu Yolcu-Karadam, 2014. "Structural Change in Turkish External Trade: Evidence from BEC Sectors," ERC Working Papers 1413, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2014.
    19. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    20. Dong, Wei, 2012. "The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 237-251.
    21. Joseph Gruber & Steven Kamin, 2009. "Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 667-688, September.
    22. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.
    23. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of large exchange rate appreciations and reserves accumulations in selected Asian economies: Is fear of appreciations justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. Sangyeon Hwang & Hyejoon Im, 2017. "International Trade Finance and Exports: Evidence from Korean Bank-Intermediated Trade Finance Instruments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 319-346, April.

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