IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/11521.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Menzie D. Chinn

Abstract

Several alternative measures of "effective" exchange rates are discussed in the context of their theoretical underpinnings and actual construction. Focusing on contemporary indices and recently developed econometric methods, the empirical characteristics of these differing series are examined, including the exchange rates for the U.S., the euro area and several East Asian countries. The issues that confront the applied economist or policymaker in using the measures of real effective exchange rates available are illustrated in several case studies from current interest: (i) evaluating exchange rate misalignment, (ii) testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect, (iii) estimating the price responsiveness of trade flows, and (iv) assessing the potential impact of competitive devaluations.

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 11521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11521
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11521.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    2. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Parsley, David C., 2007. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1355-1377, December.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Mr. Dominique Desruelle & Mr. Alessandro Zanello, 1997. "A Primeron the IMF's Information Notice System," IMF Working Papers 1997/071, International Monetary Fund.
    9. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    10. Ellen E. Meade, 1991. "Computers and the Trade Deficit: The Case of the Falling Prices," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, pages 61-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Kano, Takashi, 1997. "International Price Linkage within a Region: The Case of East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 643-666, December.
    12. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    13. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
    14. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    15. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, July.
    16. Chinn, Menzie D. & Dooley, Michael P. & Shrestha, Sona, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 659-681, August.
    17. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, August.
    18. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, March.
    19. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Peter Isard & Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Takatoshi Ito, 1996. "Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region," IMF Occasional Papers 1996/011, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Yin‐Wong Cheung, 2005. "An Analysis Of Hong Kong Export Performance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 323-340, October.
    21. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
    22. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Working Papers 2005/099, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Ian Marsh & Stephen Tokarick, 1996. "An assessment of three measures of competitiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 700-722, December.
    24. Stein, Jerome L., 1990. "The real exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1045-1078, November.
    25. Mico Loretan, 2005. "Indexes of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 91(Win), pages 1-8.
    26. Stephen S. Golub, 1994. "Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and Sectoral Trade Balances of Major Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 286-313, June.
    27. Lee, Daniel Y., 1999. "Purchasing power parity and dynamic error correction: Evidence from Asia Pacific economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 199-212, June.
    28. Black, Stanley W, 1976. "Multilateral and Bilateral Measures of Effective Exchange Rates in a World Model of Traded Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 615-621, June.
    29. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1990. "U.S. Current Account Adjustment: An Appraisal," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 343-392.
    30. Thimann, Christian & Buldorini, Luca & Makrydakis, Stelios, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    31. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
    32. Michael P. Leahy, 1998. "New summary measures of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 84(Oct), pages 811-818, October.
    33. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    34. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2003. "Real effective exchange rate and the constant elasticity of substitution assumption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 337-354, August.
    35. Bryan Acree, 1999. "Revising the Atlanta Fed dollar index," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 84(Q3), pages 40-51.
    36. Mr. Stephen S. Golub, 1994. "Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rates, and G-7 Sectoral Trade Balances," IMF Working Papers 1994/005, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    2. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October.
    3. Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 451-469, December.
    4. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Before the Fall, Was the Turkish Lira Overvalued?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 69-99, March.
    5. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, New Economic School (NES).
    8. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    9. Mr. Herman Z Bennett & Ziga Zarnic, 2008. "International Competitiveness of the Mediterranean Quartet: A Heterogeneous-Product Approach," IMF Working Papers 2008/240, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," NBER Working Papers 11719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    12. Daniel Aromi & Marcos Dal Bianco, 2014. "Un analisis de los desequilibrios del tipo de cambio real argentino bajo cambios de regimen," Working Papers 1431, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    13. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    14. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2015. "Main Economic Policies in order to Manage an Optimum Accession of Romania to the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, March.
    15. Eichler, Stefan, 2011. "Exchange rate expectations and the pricing of Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-455, February.
    16. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    17. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 1-112.
    18. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sean Fahle & Jaime R. Marquez & Charles P. Thomas, 2008. "Measuring U.S. international relative prices: a WARP view of the world," International Finance Discussion Papers 917, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Ramón Moreno, 2008. "Experiences with Current Account Deficits in Southeast Asia," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 14, pages 537-582, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.