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An Analysis of Hong Kong Export Performance

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong

The article examines the Hong Kong export performance. A standard export demand formulation is used as the benchmark. Then, we investigate the effects of real exchange rate volatility, “third†country competition, domestic wages, and costs of imports from China on export volume. The study models the Hong Kong domestic exports and re-exports separately, compares the performance of exports to the rest of the world, US and Japan, and uses destination-and-export-type specific unit value indexes to construct real exchange rates. It is found that Hong Kong export performance varies across export types and across destinations. In general, Hong Kong exports display mean-reverting dynamics, are positively influenced by foreign income, and are adversely affected by high value of its currency. The lagged export variable, foreign income, and real exchange rate provide most of the explanatory power. The other variables contribute only marginally in explaining the variability of Hong Kong exports.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt5r02w66n.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt5r02w66n
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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2005. "An Analysis Of Hong Kong Export Performance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 323-340, October.
  2. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
  3. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
  4. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
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