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Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • Sengupta, Rajeswari

Abstract

We explore the real effective exchange rate (REER) effects on the share of exports of Indian non-financial sector firms for the period 2000–2010. Our empirical analysis reveals that, on average, there has been a strong and significant negative impact from currency appreciation and currency volatility on Indian firms' export shares. Labor costs are found to intensify the exchange rate effects on trade. Further, there is evidence that the Indian firms considered here respond asymmetrically to exchange rates. For instance, the REER change effect is more likely to be driven by a negative appreciation effect than a depreciation effect. Also, Indian firms that have smaller export shares tend to have a stronger response to both REER change and volatility. Compared with those exporting goods, firms that export services are more affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The findings, especially those on asymmetric responses, have important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:39:y:2013:i:c:p:231-245 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.026
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.
    2. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141801 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(3), pages 550-578.
    4. Ronald Miranda & Gabriela Mordecki, 2015. "Real exchange rate volatility impact on exports: A comparative study 1990-2013," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 15-18, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    5. repec:spr:jqecon:v:15:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40953-016-0056-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tunç, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2016. "Does exchange rate volatility matter for international sales? Evidence from US firm level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 152-156.
    7. repec:kap:sbusec:v:49:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11187-017-9849-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jérôme Héricourt & Clément Nedoncelle, 2016. "How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2016-05, CEPII research center.
    9. Tscheke, Jan, 2016. "Operational Hedging of Exchange Rate Risks," Discussion Papers in Economics 30227, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Ana María Iregui B. & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez G. & Carmen Cecilia Delgado R., 2013. "El efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011106, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    11. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:417-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fatum, Rasmus & Liu, Runjuan & Tong, Jiadong & Xu, Jiayun, 2015. "Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thy domestic firms? evidence from 2000-2011 Chinese customs data," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 257, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Anubha Dhasmana, 2015. "Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 48-69.
    14. Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez, 2013. "Efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 801, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Khalid Sekkat, 2016. "Export Orientation and Exchange Rate Changes: Do Firms React Differently and Why?," Working Papers 989, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2016.
    16. Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2017. "Estimating the relationship between the current account, the capital account and investment for India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    17. Pasrun Adam & Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd Aziz Muthalib, 2017. "A Model of the Dynamic of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Indonesia’s Export," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 255-261.
    18. Jérôme Héricourt & Clément Nedoncelle, 2015. "Relative Real Exchange-Rate Volatility, Multi-Destination Firms and Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2015-03, CEPII research center.
    19. di Mauro, Filippo & Demian, Calin-Vlad, 2015. "The exchange rate, asymmetric shocks and asymmetric distributions," Working Paper Series 1801, European Central Bank.
    20. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Sun, Chia-Hung D., 2016. "The role of savings rate in exchange rate and trade imbalance nexus: Cross-countries evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1017-1025.
    21. Udo Broll & Soumyatanu Mukherjee, 2016. "International trade and risk aversion elasticities," Discussion Papers 2016-17, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    22. Megdam Khalil Ibrahim Khalil & Li Xiumin, 2014. "Identifying the Impact of RMB and SDG Exchange Rate Variability on the Trade Value between China and Sudan (1986-2012)," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 141-158.
    23. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & Neumann, Rebecca, 2016. "Domestic Investment Responses to Changes in the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetries of Appreciation versus Depreciation," MPRA Paper 82941, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2016.
    24. Ashima Goyal & Vaishnavi Sharma, 2017. "Estimating the Relationship between the Current Account, the Capital Account and Investment for India," Working Papers id:12099, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate fluctuations; Firm-level export shares; Asymmetric effects; Services exports;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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