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Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices

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  • Richard Baldwin

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the hypothesis that hysteresis has occurred in US aggregate non-oil import prices. We find strong evidence that a shift has occurred in the exchange rate pass-through relationship in the 1980~~ and that the nature of the shift is consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis. Results on two specific structural models of this phenomenon (the beachhead model and the bottleneck model) are less conclusive. The data broadly support both models, but neither by itself can provide a convincing accounting of all the evidence.

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  • Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices," NBER Working Papers 2483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2483 Note: ITI IFM
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    1. Schmalensee, Richard, 1982. "Product Differentiation Advantages of Pioneering Brands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 349-365, June.
    2. Nelson, Phillip, 1970. "Information and Consumer Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 311-329, March-Apr.
    3. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    4. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S. Domestic Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 505-511, August.
    5. Charles Bean, 1988. "Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance," NBER Chapters,in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, pages 39-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Hysteresis in Trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-142.
    7. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
    8. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Baldwin & Richard K. Lyons, 1988. "The Mutual Amplification Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility and Unresponsive Trade Prices," NBER Working Papers 2677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Catherine L. Mann, 1991. "Structural Change And Prospects For Sustained Improvement In U.S. External Balance," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(2), pages 50-58, April.
    3. Manitra Rakotoarisoa, "undated". "Explaining Durations in Country Investment Ratings: A Competing Risk Model with Random-Effects," EcoMod2007 23900074, EcoMod.
    4. Richard C. Marston, 1989. "Pricing to Market in Japanese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 2905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. T.N. Srinivasan & Vani Archana, 2010. "India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms’ Decision to Export," Working Papers id:2881, eSocialSciences.
    6. Francisco Ledesma & Manuel Navarro & Jorge Perez & Simón Sosvilla, 1998. "Purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity: The Spanish case," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(4), pages 335-348, November.
    7. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2004. "Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level," Working Papers 2003-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Carlo Gola, 2000. "Export pricing strategy of Italian firms: from the depreciation of the lira to the euro," LIUC Papers in Economics 77, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    9. repec:kap:iaecre:v:4:y:1998:i:4:p:335-348 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Philippe Ducos & François Lecointe, 1990. "Effets d'hystérésis sur le commerce extérieur américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(3), pages 79-93.
    11. David Ansic & Geoffrey Pugh, "undated". "An experimental test of trade hysteresis: market exit and entry decisions in the presence of sunk costs and exchange rate uncertainty," Working Papers 002, Staffordshire University, Business School.
    12. Jacqueline Dwyer & Christopher Kent & Andrew Pease, 1993. "Exchange Rate Pass-through: The Different Responses of Importers and Exporters," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9304, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Bown, Chad & Porto, Guido, 2010. "Exporters in Developing Countries: Adjustment to Foreign Market Access after a Trade Policy Shock," Papers 88, World Trade Institute.
    14. Ramon Moreno, 1991. "Explaining the U.S. export boom," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 39-52.
    15. I. Agur, 2003. "Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 740, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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