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Structural Change And Prospects For Sustained Improvement In U.S. External Balance

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  • CATHERINE L. MANN

Abstract

Projections from many macroeconometric models have suggested that the improving trend in U.S. external balance since 1987 would peter out by the end of 1990. Because the 1980s decade was a turbulent period in the international environment, one might question the reliability of these projections since the economic relationships underlying the models could have changed. This review finds insufficient evidence of structural change or of sufficiently important omitted variables to justify seriously questioning the projections. However, this study also considers model and parameter uncertainty and concludes that continued improvement in U.S. external balance is within the realm of statistical probability-but, then, so is substantial worsening. Copyright 1991 Western Economic Association International.

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  • Catherine L. Mann, 1991. "Structural Change And Prospects For Sustained Improvement In U.S. External Balance," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(1), pages 50-58, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:9:y:1991:i:1:p:50-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William L. Helkie & Peter Hooper, 1989. "U.S. external adjustment: progress and prospects," International Finance Discussion Papers 345, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Edison, Hali J. & Marquez, Jaime R. & Tryon, Ralph W., 1987. "The structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board Multicountry Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-315, April.
    3. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    4. Helkie, W.L. & Hooper, P., 1989. "U.S. External Adjustment: Progress And Prospects," Papers 71, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
    5. Peter Hooper & Catherine L. Mann, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in the 1980s: The Case of U.S. Imports of Manufactures," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 297-337.
    6. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "A forward-looking multicountry model: MX3," International Finance Discussion Papers 359, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices," NBER Working Papers 2483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
    9. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
    10. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mann, Catherina L., 2003. "A fizetési mérleg hiánya és a hiány fenntarthatósága az Egyesült Államokban
      [Perspectives on the US current account deficit and sustainability]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 891-910.
    2. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.

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