The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects
I examine the evolution of the Japanese trade balance and its relation to the terms of trade and the value of the yen. Using a vector time series model, I predict that the trade surplus will fall from a high of 3.7 percent of GNP in late 1992 to about 2.6 percent in 1995. This relatively modest decline is an indication that relative prices are not the dominant factor influencing the Japanese trade balance.
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- David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992.
"Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "DOS executable for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Web interface for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Richard Baldwin, 1988.
"Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect,"
NBER Working Papers
2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994.
"International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation,"
IMF Working Papers
94/33, International Monetary Fund.
- De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
- Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini & Holger C. Wolf, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," Working Papers 93-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
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