The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects
I examine the evolution of the Japanese trade balance and its relation to the terms of trade and the value of the yen. Using a vector time series model, I predict that the trade surplus will fall from a high of 3.7 percent of GNP in late 1992 to about 2.6 percent in 1995. This relatively modest decline is an indication that relative prices are not the dominant factor influencing the Japanese trade balance.
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|Date of creation:||1993|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics, 44 West 4th Street, New York, NY 10012-1126|
Phone: (212) 998-0860
Fax: (212) 995-4218
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/economics/
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NBER Working Papers
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- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "DOS executable for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
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- Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
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