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Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the distributional properties of forecasts from six econometric models of the U.S. trade account. Using stochastic (Monte Carlo) simulation, we derive confidence intervals and forecast-based test statistics which account for uncertainty from future disturbances and from coefficient estimation. Empirically, the confidence intervals of the trade-account forecasts are very wide, and are generally (but not necessarily) increasing with the forecast horizon. Even with such a large degree of uncertainty, some models exhibit \"predictive failure\" when tested. To evaluate forecasts across models, we generalize Chong and Hendry's (1986) forecast-encompassing test statistic to allow for model nonlinearity and to account for uncertainty arising from estimation. All models are rejected by this test, i.e., the data are highly informative. Although both the calculated forecast uncertainty and the test failures temper the role of these models in formulating policy, the failures imply the potential for improved model specification with narrower confidence bands.

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  • Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:377
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    Cited by:

    1. Ian Marsh & Stephen Tokarick, 1996. "An assessment of three measures of competitiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 700-722, December.
    2. Jaime R. Marquez, 1992. "Real exchange rates: measurement and implications for predicting U.S. external imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 427, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    4. Andrew M. Warner, 1991. "Did the debt crisis cause the investment crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 418, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Ellen E. Meade & Charles P. Thomas, 1991. "Using external sustainability to forecast the dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 398, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Catherine L. Mann, 1990. "Prospects for sustained improvement in U.S. external balance: structural change versus policy change," International Finance Discussion Papers 373, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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