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Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States

Listed author(s):
  • Ray C. Fair
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    There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Although there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvious, since economies seem complicated. The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative estimates of various sources of variability using a U. S. econometric model. Stochastic simulation is used to estimate how much the overall variances of real GNP and the GNP deflator are reduced when various shocks are suppressed in the model.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1885115
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    Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 103 (1988)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 313-332

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:103:y:1988:i:2:p:313-332.
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