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Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Although there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvious, since economies seem complicated. The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative estimates of various sources of variability using a U. S. econometric model. Stochastic simulation is used to estimate how much the overall variances of real GNP and the GNP deflator are reduced when various shocks are suppressed in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1988. "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 313-332.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:103:y:1988:i:2:p:313-332.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1885115
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaime R. Marquez & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Kenneth D. West, 1990. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 939-971.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rizwan Tahir, 1994. "Estimating the Quantitative Importance of Various Sources of Macroeconomic Variability," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1073-1087.
    5. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
    6. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    7. Einar Bowitz & Stein Inge Hove, 1996. "Business cycles and fiscal policy: Norway 1973-93," Discussion Papers 178, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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