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The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP

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  • Kenneth D. West

Abstract

A simple real linear-quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate GNP and inventories in the U.S., 1947-1986. Cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories, and are largely responsible for the well known fact that GNP is more variable than final sales. Cost and demand shocks are of roughly equal importance for GNP. These estimates are, however, imprecise. With a different, but plausible, value for a certain target inventory-sales ratio, cost shocks are less important than demand shocks for GNP fluctuations.

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  • Kenneth D. West, 1989. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP," NBER Working Papers 2992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2992
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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
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    1. West, Kenneth D., 1992. "A comparison of the behavior of Japanese and US inventories," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 115-122, February.
    2. Collard, Fabrice & Jacques, Jean-Francois, 1996. "Inventories cycle in an augmented RBC model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-3), pages 9-19, August.
    3. Martin Boileau & Marc-Andre Letendre, 2011. "Inventories, sticky prices, and the persistence of output and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1161-1174.
    4. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    5. Laffargue, Jean-Pierre & Malgrange, Pierre & Pujol, Thierry, 1992. "Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 225-261, mars et j.
    6. Pedro Albuquerque, 2006. "BAD taxation: Disintermediation and illiquidity in a bank account debits tax model," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(5), pages 601-624, September.
    7. Dimelis, Sophia P., 2001. "Inventory investment over the business cycle in the EU and the US," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 1-8, May.
    8. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February.
    9. Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "A generalized variance bounds test with an application to the Holt et al. inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 59-89.
    10. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923 Elsevier.
    12. Sangalli, Ilaria, 2013. "Inventory investment and financial constraints in the Italian manufacturing industry: A panel data GMM approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 157-178.
    13. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 971, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Carine Bouthevillain & Didier Eyssartier, 1997. "Le rôle des variations de stocks dans les cycles d'activité des principaux pays industrialisés," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 62(1), pages 151-202.
    15. Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 2001. "Inventory investment and asymmetric adjustment: Some evidence for the UK," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 251-260, August.
    16. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
    17. Yungsan Kim & Woon Gyu Choi, 2001. "Has Inventory Investment Been Liquidity-Constrained? Evidence From U.S. Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 01/122, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    19. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.

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