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The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Louis J. Maccini
  • Bartholomew J. Moore
  • Huntley Schaller

Abstract

This paper presents a model that provides an explanation, based on regime switching in the real interest rate and learning, of why tests based on stock adjustment models, Euler equations, or decision rules—which emphasize short-run fluctuations in inventories and the interest rate—are unlikely to uncover a negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate. The model, however, predicts that inventories will respond to long-run movements, that is, to regime shifts in the real interest rate. Tests emphasizing cointegration techniques confirm this prediction and show a significant long-run relationship between inventories and the real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew J. Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2004. "The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1303-1327, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:94:y:2004:i:5:p:1303-1327
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/0002828043052295
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    2. Jason Barr, 2013. "Skyscrapers And Skylines: New York And Chicago, 1885–2007," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-391, August.
    3. Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Econometric Issues in Estimating User Cost Elasticity," Economics Series 194, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Kosacoff, Bernardo & Ramos, Adrián, 2006. "Microeconomic behavior in high uncertainty environments: the case of Argentina," Documentos de Proyectos 101, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    6. Junayed, Sadaquat & Khan, Hashmat, 2009. "Inventory investment and the real interest rate," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-5.
    7. Thomas A. Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2009. "Inventories and optimal monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 357-382.
    8. Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
    9. Jones, Christopher S. & Tuzel, Selale, 2013. "Inventory investment and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 557-579.
    10. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target; An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/77, International Monetary Fund.

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