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Inventory change, capacity utilization and the semiconductor industry cycle

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  • Liu, Wen-Hsien
  • Chung, Ching-Fan
  • Chang, Kuang-Liang

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inventory change and the industry cycle in a deeper way. The nonlinear, two-state, trivariate, Markov regime-switching model developed in this paper which includes inventory change, capacity utilization and chip sales not only obtains satisfactory out-of-sample forecasts of the probability of the industry being in recession, but also, through the regimes identified by the model, provides interesting stories of dynamics within the industry and new evidence that the change in semiconductor inventory is in fact countercyclical with respect to chip sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chung, Ching-Fan & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2013. "Inventory change, capacity utilization and the semiconductor industry cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-127.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:119-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.11.027
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    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Long, 2015. "Collaborative forecasting, inventory hedging and contract coordination in dynamic supply risk management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 133-145.
    2. Wen-Hsien Liu & Shu-Shih Weng, 2018. "On predicting the semiconductor industry cycle: a Bayesian model averaging approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 673-703, March.
    3. Aubry, Mathilde & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2014. "Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-231.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Semiconductor; Markov regime-switching model; Inventory; Capacity utilization; Industry cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L63 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Microelectronics; Computers; Communications Equipment

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