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The multiplier: a general equilibrium analysis of multi-stage-fabrication economy with inventories

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  • Yi Wen

Abstract

This paper provides a general equilibrium multi-stage production model to explain the co-existence and co-movement of output- and input-inventories. The model offers a neoclassical perspective on the propagation mechanism of demand uncertainty. It reveals that uncertainty in demand at downstream can be transmitted and amplified towards upstream by inventory investment at all stages of production via input-output linkages, leading to a chain-multiplier effect on aggregate output and employment. The model is capable of explaining several long-standing puzzles of the business cycle associated with inventories.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Wen, 2005. "The multiplier: a general equilibrium analysis of multi-stage-fabrication economy with inventories," Working Papers 2005-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    2. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
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    5. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
    6. Yakov Amihud & Haim Mendelson, 1983. "Price Smoothing and Inventory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(1), pages 87-98.
    7. Andrew B. Abel, 1985. "Inventories, Stock-Outs, and Production Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 1563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-864, September.
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    13. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923, Elsevier.
    14. E. Zabel, 1970. "Monopoly and Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(2), pages 205-219.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.

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    Keywords

    Business cycles; Production (Economic theory); Investments;
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