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An Empirical Model of Inventory Investment by Durable Commodity Intermediaries

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  • George Hall

    (Yale University)

  • John Rust

    (Yale University)

Abstract

We present a new detailed data set of high-frequency observations on inventory investment by a U.S. steel wholesaler. Our analysis of the data leads to six main conclusions: orders and sales are made infrequently; orders are more volatile than sales; order sizes vary considerably; there is considerable day-to-day variability in sales prices; inventory/sales ratios are unstable; and there are occasional stockouts. We model the firm generically as a durable commodity intermediary. We demonstrate that the firm's behavior at the product level is well approximated by an optimal trading strategy derived from a multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic programming problem with continuous state and control variables which are subject to frequently binding inequality constraints. We show that the optimal trading strategy takes the form of a generalized (S,s) rule in which the (S,s) bands are decreasing functions of the spot price. We simulate a calibrated version of this model, and show that the simulated data exhibit the key features of inventory investment we observe in our data.

Suggested Citation

  • George Hall & John Rust, 1999. "An Empirical Model of Inventory Investment by Durable Commodity Intermediaries," Macroeconomics 9904005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9904005
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    Cited by:

    1. George Hall and John Rust, Yale University, 2001. "Econometric Methods for Endogenously Sampled Time Series: The Case of Commodity Price Speculation in the Steel Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 274, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2304-2339, December.
    3. Gautier, Erwan & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2011. "Time-varying (S, s) band models: Properties and interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 394-412, March.
    4. Gautier, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2009. "Time-varying (S, s) band models: empirical properties and interpretation," Working papers 231, Banque de France.
    5. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Francis Guiton, 2022. "Decentralized Decision-Making in Retail Chains: Evidence from Inventory Management," Working Papers tecipa-722, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Florian Zettelmeyer & Fiona Scott Morton & Jorge Silva-Risso, 2006. "Scarcity Rents in Car Retailing: Evidence from Inventory Fluctuations at Dealerships," NBER Working Papers 12177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David & Kleinberg, Jon & Tardos, Éva, 2009. "Trading networks with price-setting agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 36-50, September.
    9. John Rust & George Hall, 2003. "Middlemen versus Market Makers: A Theory of Competitive Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 353-403, April.
    10. Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2018. "How Importers May Hedge Demand Uncertainty," Discussion Papers dp18-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    11. Ejarque, João Miguel, 2011. "Evaluating the economic cost of natural gas strategic storage restrictions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 44-55, January.
    12. Jia Yan & John Liu, 2008. "Instability of Dynamic Inventory Systems," Working Papers 2008-23, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    13. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2013. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 249-276.
    14. Robert L. Bray & Yuliang Yao & Yongrui Duan & Jiazhen Huo, 2019. "Ration Gaming and the Bullwhip Effect," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 453-467, March.
    15. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Fabio Antoniou & Raffaele Fiocco, 2019. "Strategic inventories under limited commitment," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 50(3), pages 695-729, September.
    17. Chris Muris & Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2023. "Inventory, Sourcing, and the Effects of Trade Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10253, CESifo.
    18. Alessandro Gavazza, 2016. "An Empirical Equilibrium Model of a Decentralized Asset Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1755-1798, September.
    19. ARATA Yoshiyuki, 2015. "Endogenous Business Cycles Caused by Nonconvex Costs and Interactions," Discussion papers 15085, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Hall, George & Rust, John, 2021. "Estimation of endogenously sampled time series: The case of commodity price speculation in the steel market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 219-243.
    21. Ayelet Israeli & Fiona Scott-Morton & Jorge Silva-Risso & Florian Zettelmeyer, 2022. "How Market Power Affects Dynamic Pricing: Evidence from Inventory Fluctuations at Car Dealerships," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 895-916, February.
    22. Robert L. Bray & Haim Mendelson, 2015. "Production Smoothing and the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 208-220, May.
    23. Yoshiyuki Arata, 2017. "Endogenous business cycles caused by nonconvex costs and interactions," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 367-391, July.
    24. Ortner, Juan, 2017. "Durable goods monopoly with stochastic costs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), May.
    25. Sargent, Thomas J., 2024. "Critique and consequence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2-13.

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    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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