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The production-smoothing model is alive and well

  • Fair, Ray C.

Monthly data in physical units for seven industries are used to examine the production smoothing hypothesis. The results strongly support this hypothesis. Significant effects of expected future sales on current production are found for four industries, and the estimated decision equations for all seven industries imply production smoothing behavior. The previous negative results regarding the hypothesis appear to be due to the use of poor data, particularly the shipments and inventory data of the Department of Commerce.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 353-370

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:24:y:1989:i:3:p:353-370
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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 0891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  3. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
  4. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
  5. Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-69, June.
  6. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
  7. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-98, May.
  8. Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October.
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