The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well
Monthly data in physical units for seven industries are used to examine the production smoothing hypothesis. The results strongly support this hypothesis. Significant effects of expected future sales on current production are found for four industries, and the estimated decision equations for all seven industries imply production smoothing behavior. The previous negative results regarding the hypothesis appear to be due to the use of poor data, particularly the shipments and inventory data of the Department of Commerce.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1989|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Monetary Economics (1989), 24: 353-370|
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|Order Information:|| Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
References listed on IDEAS
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01-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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- Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-798, May.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
- Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-469, June.
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