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Input and Output Inventory Dynamics

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  • Yi Wen

Abstract

This paper develops an analytically tractable general equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model's predictions are broadly consistent with the US business cycle and key features of inventory behavior. It is also shown that technological improvement of inventory management can increase, rather than decrease, the volatility of aggregate output. Key to this seemingly counterintuitive result is that a stockout-avoidance motive leads to a procyclical shadow value of inventories, which acts as an automatic stabilizer that discourages sales in booms and encourages demand in recessions, thereby reducing the variability of GDP. (JEL D92, E22, E23, E32, G31)

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:181-212
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.4.181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Louis Maccini, 2013. "Inventory Behavior with Permanent Sales Shocks," Economics Working Paper Archive 608, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    2. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    3. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    4. Grasselli, Matheus R. & Nguyen-Huu, Adrien, 2018. "Inventory growth cycles with debt-financed investment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Crouzet, Nicolas & Oh, Hyunseung, 2016. "What do inventories tell us about news-driven business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 49-66.
    6. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2015. "The federal funds market, excess reserves, and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 225-250.
    7. Lutz Kilian & Nikos Nomikos & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery," Working Papers 2108, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Blouri, Yashar & Ehrlich, Maximilian V., 2020. "On the optimal design of place-based policies: A structural evaluation of EU regional transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Maican, Florin & Orth, Matilda, 2021. "Determinants of economies of scope in retail," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Marcel Förster, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycles in a New Keynesian Model with Inventories," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201413, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Sarte, Pierre-Daniel & Schwartzman, Felipe & Lubik, Thomas A., 2015. "What inventory behavior tells us about how business cycles have changed," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 264-283.
    12. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2014. "What inventories tell us about aggregate fluctuations—A tractable approach to (S,s) policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 196-217.
    13. Wen, Yi, 2015. "Money, liquidity and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-24.
    14. Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Ydriss Ziane, 2012. "No Going Back: How the Production Process Affects Access to Short-term Credit," Discussion Papers 12/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    15. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    16. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    18. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2019. "Time-Varying Networks and the Efficacy of Money Without Sticky Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 1464, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Zhiwei Xu & Yi Wen & pengfei Wang, 2012. "When Do Inventories Destabilize the Economy? ---A Tractable Approach to (S,s) Policies," 2012 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. James A. Kahn, 2008. "Durable goods inventories and the Great Moderation," Staff Reports 325, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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