IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wat/wpaper/00002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Merchandise Trade Balances of Less Developed Countries and Exchange Rate of the U.S. Dollar: Cases of Iran, Venezuela & Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Ayoub Yousefi

Abstract

This study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar on the trade balances of three oil-exporting countries, Iran, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia. An exchange rate pass-through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods. We found that changes in the effective exchange rate of the dollar pass through partially to these countries' import prices. For the export prices, under the floating exchange rate system depreciation of the dollar was found to cause export prices of these countries (except Saudi Arabia) to rise. While changes in the exchange rate of the dollar influence these countries' trade balances, the long-run trade balance adjustments seem to follow different patterns and time profiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayoub Yousefi, 2000. "Merchandise Trade Balances of Less Developed Countries and Exchange Rate of the U.S. Dollar: Cases of Iran, Venezuela & Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 00002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2000.
  • Handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:00002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
    2. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
    3. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    4. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-654, September.
    5. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Wendy E. Takacs & John F. Wilson, 1980. "Expectations and the adjustment of trade flows under floating exchange- rates: leads, lags and the J-curve," International Finance Discussion Papers 160, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Gerald H. Anderson & Nicholas V. Karamouzis & Peter D. Skaperdas, 1987. "A new effective exchange rate index for the dollar and its implications for U.S. merchandise trade," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-23.
    8. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1984. "How Reliable Are Simple, Single Equation Specifications of Import Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 120-128, February.
    9. Joseph E. Gagnon & Michael M. Knetter, 1990. "Pricing to market in international trade: evidence from panel data on automobiles and total merchandise," International Finance Discussion Papers 389, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1983. "Specification of Supply Behavior in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 626-632, November.
    11. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-314, May.
    12. Peter Hooper & Catherine L. Mann, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in the 1980s: The Case of U.S. Imports of Manufactures," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 297-337.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    14. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. M. Van Leuvensteijn, 1994. "An analysis of the ECU as an invoicing currency in international trade in the period 1983-1990," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 47(188), pages 53-74.
    16. Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-620, June.
    17. Stephen E. Haynes & Michael M. Hutchison, 1984. "U.S.-Japanese bilateral trade and the yen-dollar exchange rate: an empirical analysis," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 84-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Marquez, Jaime, 1990. "Bilateral Trade Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 70-77, February.
    19. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    20. Deyak, Timothy A & Sawyer, W Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L, 1989. "An Empirical Examination of the Structural Stability of Disaggregated U.S. Import Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 337-341, May.
    21. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S. Domestic Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 505-511, August.
    22. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1979. "Money in International Exchange: The Convertible Currency System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195024098.
    23. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    24. Thursby, Jerry G, 1981. "A Test Strategy for Discriminating between Autocorrelation and Misspecification in Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 117-123, February.
    25. Moffett, Michael H., 1989. "The J-curve revisited: an empirical examination for the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 425-444, September.
    26. Paul R. Krugman, 1984. "The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 261-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Exchange Rates and Import Prices in the United States: A Varying-Parameter Estimation of Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 305-315, July.
    28. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, January.
    29. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    30. Himarios, Daniel, 1985. "The effects of devaluation on the trade balance: A critical view and re- examination of Mile's `new results'," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 553-563, December.
    31. B. Dianne Pauls, 1987. "Measuring the foreign-exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 411-422.
    32. Erich Spitäller, 1980. "Short-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Terms of Trade and Trade Balance (Incidence à court terme des variations du taux de change sur les termes de l'échange et la balance commerciale) (Efecto," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(2), pages 320-348, June.
    33. Murray, Tracy & Ginman, Peter J, 1976. "An Empirical Examination of the Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 75-80, February.
    34. Augustine Arize & Rasoul Afifi, 1987. "An Econometric Examination of Import Demand Function in Thirty Developing Countries," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 604-616, July.
    35. Michael Melvin & Jahangir Sultan, 1990. "The choice of an invoicing currency in international trade and the balance of trade impact of currency depreciation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 251-268, October.
    36. Padma Gotur, 1985. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Some Further Evidence (Effets de l'instabilité des taux de change sur le commerce mondial: nouvelles constatations) (Efectos de la inestabilidad de los t," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 475-512, September.
    37. Fisher, Eric, 1989. "A model of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 119-137, February.
    38. Grassman, Sven, 1973. "A fundamental symmetry in international payment patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 105-116, May.
    39. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    40. Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
    41. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
    42. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mansour Zarra-Nezhad & Amin Mansouri, 2014. "Impact of spatial effect on volatility of trade," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 358-368, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2003. "Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve: the case of oil exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 741-765, November.
    2. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    3. Pavel Kadochnikov, 2006. "An Analysis of Import Substitution in Russia after the 1998 Crisis," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 95, pages 148-148.
    4. Yang, Jiawen, 1998. "Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 843-861.
    5. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Import demand and supply with relatively few theoretical or empirical puzzles," International Finance Discussion Papers 433, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Chang, Byoung-Ky, 1999. "Three essays on imperfect competition and exchange rate pass-through in the presence of multiple exchange rates," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000013554, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Phillip Swagel, 1995. "Import prices and the competing goods effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 508, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Michael M. Knetter, 1992. "Exchange Rates and Corporate Pricing Strategies," NBER Working Papers 4151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael Melvin & Jahangir Sultan, 1990. "The choice of an invoicing currency in international trade and the balance of trade impact of currency depreciation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 251-268, October.
    10. Hai Yue Liu & Xiao Lan Chen, 2017. "The imported price, inflation and exchange rate pass-through in China," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1279814-127, January.
    11. Carlo Gola, 2000. "Export pricing strategy of Italian firms: from the depreciation of the lira to the euro," LIUC Papers in Economics 77, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    12. Webber, A., 1999. "Dynamic and Long Run Responses of Import Prices to the Exchange Rate in the Asia-Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    13. Hernán Rincón & Édgar Caicedo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through effects: a disaggregate analysis of Colombian imports of manufactured goods," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(54), pages 90-121, June.
    14. Vesala, Jukka, 1992. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and hysteresis in trade : A survey of recent theories and an empirical study of export pricing of Finnish paper manufacturies," Research Discussion Papers 29/1992, Bank of Finland.
    15. Bowe, Michael & Saltvedt, Thina M., 2004. "Currency invoicing practices, exchange rate volatility and pricing-to-market: evidence from product level data," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 281-308, June.
    16. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2004. "Is Pricing to Market Behavior a Long-Run Phenomenon? A Non-Stationary Panel Analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 55-67, March.
    17. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002. "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    19. Georgy Idrisov, 2010. "Factors of Demand for Imported Goods for Investment Purpose to Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 138P.
    20. Jacint Balaguer & Vicente Orts & Ezequiel Uriel, 1997. "Segmentación de mercados y discriminación internacional de precios. Evidencia empírica para las exportaciones industriales españolas a los principales países de la OCDE," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(3), pages 543-562, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Balance; J-curve; Invoicing Currency; Exchange Rate pass-through; Crude Oil.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:00002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherri Anne Arsenault (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewatca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.