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Exchange Rates and Import Prices in the United States: A Varying-Parameter Estimation of Exchange-Rate Pass-Through

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  • Kim, Yoonbai

Abstract

This article estimates the import-price function in the United States using a varying-parameter model. The results show that the short-run nonoil import-price changes have become relatively less responsive to exchange-rate changes than to foreign-cost changes since the generalized floating began in the early 1970s. Concomitantly, the markup has varied significantly, falling when the dollar fell and rising when it rose. Thus "pricing to market" is confirmed even for overall U.S. imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Exchange Rates and Import Prices in the United States: A Varying-Parameter Estimation of Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 305-315, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:8:y:1990:i:3:p:305-15
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    Cited by:

    1. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Does inflation targeting always matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    2. Vesala, Jukka, 1992. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and hysteresis in trade : A survey of recent theories and an empirical study of export pricing of Finnish paper manufacturies," Research Discussion Papers 29/1992, Bank of Finland.
    3. Víctor Tiberio Olivo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Inflation Targeting do not Work with Systematic Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 51-67, January-J.
    4. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    5. Lourdes Martín & Diego Rodríguez, 2004. "Pricing to market at firm level," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 302-320, June.
    6. Seo, Jeong-Yun, 1998. "Exchange rate and market power in import price," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013522, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Kunovac, Davor, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2003, European Central Bank.
    8. Carlos José Garcia & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price and wage inflation in Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 109-130, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Carlos José García T. & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2003. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Trough in Chile," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 69-88, January-J.
    10. Adrian Pizzinga & Marcelo Fernandes, 2021. "Extensions to the invariance property of maximum likelihood estimation for affine‐transformed state‐space models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 355-371, May.
    11. Ayoub Yousefi, 2000. "Merchandise Trade Balances of Less Developed Countries and Exchange Rate of the U.S. Dollar: Cases of Iran, Venezuela & Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 00002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2000.
    12. Prudence Serju, 2003. "Monetary Conditions and Core Inflation: an Application of Neural Networks," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 31-50, January-J.
    13. Kuo-Liang Wang & Chung-Shu Wu, 1996. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Industry Characteristics: The Case of Taiwan's Exports of Midstream Petrochemical Products," NBER Working Papers 5749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Always Matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Working Papers hal-02082568, HAL.
    15. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2017. "IT Countries: A Breed Apart? the case of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 1728, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    16. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    17. Menzie David Chinn, 1991. "Beware of econometricians bearing estimates: Policy analysis in a “unit root” world," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 546-567.
    18. Yung Yang, 1991. "Structural change in the U.S. import prices of manufactures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(2), pages 323-342, June.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_029 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Hernán Rincón & Édgar Caicedo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through effects: A disaggregate analysis of Colombian imports of manufactured goods," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(54), pages 90-121, June.
    22. Ghartey, Edward E., 2019. "Asymmetries in exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy principle: Some Caribbean empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 325-335.
    23. Pradyut Kumar Pyne & Saikat Sinha Roy, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in India an Exploration with Sectoral Import Prices," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_038, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    24. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    25. Vesala, Jukka, 1992. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and hysteresis in trade: A survey of recent theories and an empirical study of export pricing of Finnish paper manufacturies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/1992, Bank of Finland.

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