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Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile

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  • Carlos José García
  • Jorge Enrique Restrepo

Abstract

A price equation based on a model of imperfect competition was estimated using quarterly data for Chile from 1986:1 to 2001:1. The estimation includes the first difference of the dependent variable following the literature on the estimation of linear quadratic adjustment cost (LQAC) models, when the target and some of the driving variables follow I(2) processes. The equation is used to generate out-of-sample inflation forecast, of a narrower-than the-CPI price index. We can conclude from the estimation results: i) exchange-rate pass-through depends positively on economic activity (output gap) explaining why pass-through has been so low in recent years in Chile. In other words, a negative output gap has compensated the inflationary impact of exchange-rate depreciation; ii) productivity reduces unit labor costs and inflation; iii) wages and foreign prices are positively related to inflation; iv) Finally, expected inflation acceleration is significant, confirming that expectations matter determining inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:128
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Caballero & Kevin Cowan & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons From Australia and Chile," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 313-354.
    2. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "The Role of the Business Cycle in Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Finland," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 15-27, June.
    4. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
    6. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bostjan Jazbec & Igor Masten, 2004. "Linfluence du régime de change sur linflation dans les pays adhérents," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 51-61.
    7. Santiago Justel & Andrés Sansone, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: VAR Evidence for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 747, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. M. Abimbola Oyinlola & M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2009. "A Bound Testing Analysis Of Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Aggregate Import Prices In Nigeria: 1980-2006," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 97-109, December.
    9. Michael Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2014. "Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 20693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Georgy Idrisov, 2010. "Factors of Demand for Imported Goods for Investment Purpose to Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 138P.
    11. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Verónica Mies M. & Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms: New Elements for an old Debate," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 29-66, December.
    13. Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy in Chile: the Abandonment of the Band and the Floating Experience," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 67-94, December.
    14. Ghosh, Amit, 2013. "Exchange rate pass through, macro fundamentals and regime choice in Latin America," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 163-171.
    15. Gabriela Contreras M. & Pablo García S., 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 37-55, August.
    16. Pablo García S. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2003. "Money and Inflation in an Inflation-Tageting Regime," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(1), pages 21-47, April.
    17. Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño & Pablo Hernán Mendieta Ossio, 2006. "Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada: el caso de Bolivia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-39, enero-mar.
    18. Fernando Morra, 2014. "Moderando Inflaciones Moderadas," Department of Economics, Working Papers 106, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    19. Pablo García S. & Rodrigo Valdés P, 2003. "Dinero e Inflación en el Marco de Metas de Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 198, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and 'Fear of Floating'," Studies in Economics 0605, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    21. Luis F. Céspedes C. & Claudio Soto G., 2006. "Inflation Targeting And Monetary Policy Credibility In Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 53-70, December.

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