Linfluence du régime de change sur linflation dans les pays adhérents
[eng] Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Accession Countries by Fabrizio Coricelli , Boštjan Jazbec and Igor Masten This paper analyzes the link between the choice of exchange rate regime and inflationary performance in four EU accession countries : the Czech Republic , Hungary , Poland and Slovenia (CEEC-4 ). The findings generate a clear ranking of the countries by magnitude of pass-through effect and the importance of exchange rate shocks to overall inflationary performance . We find , in particular , that a perfect pass-through effect associated with an accommodative exchange rate policy can become an important source of inflationary pressure . The analysis suggests that early adoption of the euro could be the most effective way for the CEEC-4 to reduce inflation . Keywords : Accession to EMU , pass-through effect , I (2 ) cointegration analysis , policy trade-off [fre] Cet article analyse le lien entre le choix de régime de taux de change et la performance inflationniste dans quatre pays adhérents à l ’ UE : la République tchèque , la Hongrie , la Pologne et la Slovénie (Peco-4 ). Les résultats permettent un classement clair des pays selon l ’ intensité de la transmission (ou selon le degré d ’ influence ) et l ’ importance des chocs de taux de change sur la performance inflationniste globale . En particulier , une transmission parfaite , associée à une politique de taux de change accommodante , peut devenir une source importante de pressions inflationnistes . L ’ analyse suggère que pour les Peco-4 une adoption rapide de l ’ euro fournirait le moyen le plus efficace de réduire l ’ inflation . Mots-clés : accession à l ’ UME , effet de transmission , analyse de co-intégration I (2 ), compromis de politique
Volume (Year): 163 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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