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L’influence du régime de change sur l’inflation dans les pays adhérents

  • Igor Masten
  • Bostjan Jazbec
  • Fabrizio Coricelli

[eng] Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Accession Countries . by Fabrizio Coricelli , Boštjan Jazbec and Igor Masten . This paper analyzes the link between the choice of exchange rate regime and inflationary performance in four EU accession countries : the Czech Republic , Hungary , Poland and Slovenia (CEEC-4 ). The findings generate a clear ranking of the countries by magnitude of pass-through effect and the importance of exchange rate shocks to overall inflationary performance . We find , in particular , that a perfect pass-through effect associated with an accommodative exchange rate policy can become an important source of inflationary pressure . The analysis suggests that early adoption of the euro could be the most effective way for the CEEC-4 to reduce inflation . Keywords : Accession to EMU , pass-through effect , I (2 ) cointegration analysis , policy trade-off [fre] Cet article analyse le lien entre le choix de régime de taux de change et la performance inflationniste dans quatre pays adhérents à l ’ UE : la République tchèque , la Hongrie , la Pologne et la Slovénie (Peco-4 ). Les résultats permettent un classement clair des pays selon l ’ intensité de la transmission (ou selon le degré d ’ influence ) et l ’ importance des chocs de taux de change sur la performance inflationniste globale . En particulier , une transmission parfaite , associée à une politique de taux de change accommodante , peut devenir une source importante de pressions inflationnistes . L ’ analyse suggère que pour les Peco-4 une adoption rapide de l ’ euro fournirait le moyen le plus efficace de réduire l ’ inflation . Mots-clés : accession à l ’ UME , effet de transmission , analyse de co-intégration I (2 ), compromis de politique

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 163 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 51-61

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_163_2_7342
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.7342
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  8. Banerjee, A. & Cockerell, L. & Russell, B., 1998. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Economics Series Working Papers 99203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  15. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bostjan Jazbec, 2002. "Accession to the European Union: Real Exchange Rate Dynamics for Candidate Countries," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(1), pages 109-138, January-F.
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  18. Maurizio Michael Habib, 2002. "Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0209004, EconWPA.
  19. Ilan Goldfajn & Sergio R.C. Werlang, 2000. "The pass-through from depreciation to inflation : a panel study," Textos para discussão 423, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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  25. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
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