Linfluence du régime de change sur linflation dans les pays adhérents
[eng] Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Accession Countries by Fabrizio Coricelli , Boštjan Jazbec and Igor Masten This paper analyzes the link between the choice of exchange rate regime and inflationary performance in four EU accession countries : the Czech Republic , Hungary , Poland and Slovenia (CEEC-4 ). The findings generate a clear ranking of the countries by magnitude of pass-through effect and the importance of exchange rate shocks to overall inflationary performance . We find , in particular , that a perfect pass-through effect associated with an accommodative exchange rate policy can become an important source of inflationary pressure . The analysis suggests that early adoption of the euro could be the most effective way for the CEEC-4 to reduce inflation . Keywords : Accession to EMU , pass-through effect , I (2 ) cointegration analysis , policy trade-off [fre] Cet article analyse le lien entre le choix de régime de taux de change et la performance inflationniste dans quatre pays adhérents à l ’ UE : la République tchèque , la Hongrie , la Pologne et la Slovénie (Peco-4 ). Les résultats permettent un classement clair des pays selon l ’ intensité de la transmission (ou selon le degré d ’ influence ) et l ’ importance des chocs de taux de change sur la performance inflationniste globale . En particulier , une transmission parfaite , associée à une politique de taux de change accommodante , peut devenir une source importante de pressions inflationnistes . L ’ analyse suggère que pour les Peco-4 une adoption rapide de l ’ euro fournirait le moyen le plus efficace de réduire l ’ inflation . Mots-clés : accession à l ’ UME , effet de transmission , analyse de co-intégration I (2 ), compromis de politique
Volume (Year): 163 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000.
"The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study,"
Working Papers Series
5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Sergio R.C. Werlang, 2000. "The pass-through from depreciation to inflation : a panel study," Textos para discussão 423, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004.
"Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies,"
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001.
"The demand for M3 in the euro area,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
- Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
- Coenen, Guenter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
- Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
- Maurizio Michael Habib, 2002. "Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0209004, EconWPA.
- Guillermo Calvo & Michael Kumhof & Oya Celasun, 2002. "Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia," IMF Working Papers 02/30, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Martin Uribe, 2002.
"Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability,"
NBER Working Papers
9294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 137-159, January.
- Martin Uribe, 1995. "Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability," International Finance Discussion Papers 505, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Banerjee, A. & Cockerell, L. & Russell, B., 1998.
"An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup,"
Economics Series Working Papers
99203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002.
"Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?,"
IESE Research Papers
D/475, IESE Business School.
- Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro phenomenon?," Staff Reports 149, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2001.
"Controlling Inflation in a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model with an Application to US Data,"
01-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Soren JOHANSEN & Katarina JUSELIUS, 2001. "Controlling Inflation in a Cointergrated Vector Autoregressive Model with an Application to US Data," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/02, European University Institute.
- Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Fabrizio Coricelli & Bostjan Jazbec, 2002. "Accession to the European Union: Real Exchange Rate Dynamics for Candidate Countries," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(1), pages 109-138, January-F.
- Katarina Juselius, 2001. "European integration and monetary transmission mechanisms: the case of Italy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 341-358.
- Igor MASTEN, 2002. "How Important Is the Shock-Absorbing Role of the Real Exchange Rate?," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/06, European University Institute.
- Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2002. "Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Ki-Ho Kim, 1998. "US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: a vector error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-619.
- TomÃ¡s Holub & Martin Cihak, 2001. "Convergence of Relative Prices and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 01/124, International Monetary Fund.
- Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Leo Bonato & Andreas Billmeier, 2002.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in Croatia,"
IMF Working Papers
02/109, International Monetary Fund.
- Billmeier, Andreas & Bonato, Leo, 2004. "Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in Croatia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 426-444, September.
- J. McCarthy, 1999.
"Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies,"
BIS Working Papers
79, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
- Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Arratibel, Olga & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 0132, European Central Bank.
- Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Candidate Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_163_2_7342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.