Financial contagion, interest rates and the role of the exchange rate as shock absorber in Central and Eastern Europe
This paper studies the impact of external factors on daily exchange rates and short-term interest rates in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland during the period August 1997 – May 2001. I find that neither exchange rates nor interest rates are influenced by short-term German interest rates. Nevertheless, I show that shocks to emerging-market risk premia had a significant impact on exchange rates in all three Central and Eastern European count-ries and on interest rates in the Czech Republic. In addition, studying the second moment of the variables, I demonstrate that Czech and Polish exchange rates were affected by ‘vo- latility contagion’ coming from emerging markets. I find also some partial support for the ‘volatility contagion’ hypothesis on Czech interest rates. These findings shed some doubts on the alleged theoretical ability of a floating exchange rate – such as in the Czech Repub-lic – to absorb external shocks and insulate a country's domestic monetary policy comple-tely. However, the spill-over effect on Czech interest rates might be explained by the ‘ma-naged’ nature of the exchange rate regime, thereby re-establishing some credibility of the theory.
|Date of creation:||20 Sep 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - pdf; prepared on PC; pages: 46; figures: included|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995.
"Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
- Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990.
"Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995.
"Emerging Equity Market Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bodart, Vincent & Reding, Paul, 1999.
"Exchange rate regime, volatility and international correlations on bond and stock markets,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 133-151, January.
- Bodart, V. & Reding, P., 1998. "Exchange Rate Regime, Volatility and International Correlations on Bond and Stock Markets," Papers 204, Notre-Dame de la Paix, Sciences Economiques et Sociales.
- Michael J. Artis & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Stabilizing Effect of the ERMon Exchange Rates and Interest Rates; An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 93/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004.
"Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime," NBER Working Papers 8828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999.
"Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F660-72, November.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
- Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1980. "Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," NBER Working Papers 0476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Research Department Publications 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 1999. "Financial Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," MNB Working Papers 1999/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-81, May.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio & Serven, Luis, 2000. "Global transmission of interest rates : monetary independence and the currency regime," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2424, The World Bank.
- Martin Scheicher, 2000. "The comovements of the short interest rates in central and east european countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2000(3).
- Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0209004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.