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Does Correlation Between Stock Returns Really Increase During Turbulent Periods?

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  • Francois Chesnay
  • Eric Jondeau

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> Correlations betwen international equity markets are often claimed to increase during periods of high volatility. Therefore the benefits of international diversification are reduced when they are most needed, i.e. during turbulent periods. This paper investigates the relationship between international correlation and stock-market turbulence. We estimate a multivariate Markov-switching model, in which the correlation matrix varies across regimes. Subsequently, we test the null hypothesis that correlations are regime-independent. Using weekly stock returns for the S&P, the DAX and the FTSE over the period 1988–99, we find that international correlations significantly increased during turbulent periods. (J.E.L.: C53, G15).

Suggested Citation

  • Francois Chesnay & Eric Jondeau, 2001. "Does Correlation Between Stock Returns Really Increase During Turbulent Periods?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(1), pages 53-80, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:30:y:2001:i:1:p:53-80
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1468-0300.00047
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    7. Ding, Liang & Huang, Yirong & Pu, Xiaoling, 2014. "Volatility linkage across global equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 71-89.
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    9. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," Research Paper Series 168, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Anna Czapkiewicz & Pawel Jamer & Joanna Landmesser, 2018. "Effects of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Financial Markets Interrelations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 268-293, July.
    11. Olbryś Joanna & Majewska Elżbieta, 2015. "Testing Integration Effects Between the Cee and U.S. Stock Markets During the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 101-113, June.
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    17. Radu Lupu, 2014. "Simultaneity of Tail Events for Dynamic Conditional Distributions of Stock Market Index Returns," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 49-64, December.
    18. Serge Darolles & Jeremy Dudek & Gaëlle Le Fol, 2014. "Liquidity risk and contagion for liquid funds," Post-Print hal-01632776, HAL.
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    20. Serge Darolles & Jeremy Dudek & Gaëlle Le Fol, 2014. "Contagion in Emerging Markets," Post-Print hal-01632778, HAL.
    21. Narayan, Seema & Doytch, Nadia & Nguyen, Tri Tung & Kluegel, Karl, 2016. "Trade of goods and services and risk sharing ability in international equity markets: Are these substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 485-503.
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    25. Reboredo, Juan C. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2015. "An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 474-490.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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