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Conditional dependency of financial series : an application of copulas

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  • ROCKINGER, Michael
  • JONDEAU, Eric

    (Banque de France, DEER)

Abstract

We develop a new methodology that measures conditional dependency. We achieve this by using copula functions that link marginal distributions, here chosen to obey a GARCH-type model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis. We apply this model to daily returns of stock-market indices. We find strong evidence of persistence in dependency both for local currency and $ US denominated series. For European stock markets, we also find evidence that large simultaneous returns of either sign lead to higher subsequent dependency. We show that dependency changes through time, as well. For stock markets within Europe, dependency increased whereas it decreased since the mid 90s when involving the S&P 500 or the Nikkei. We also suggest extensions for conditional asset pricing models involving time variation of co-skewness and co-kurtosis.

Suggested Citation

  • ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2001. "Conditional dependency of financial series : an application of copulas," Les Cahiers de Recherche 723, HEC Paris.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:0723
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Junker & Alexander Szimayer & Niklas Wagner, 2004. "Nonlinear Term Structure Dependence: Copula Functions, Empirics, and Risk Implications," Econometrics 0401007, EconWPA.
    2. Aamir R. Hashmi & Anthony S. Tay, 2001. "Global and Regional Sources of Risk in Equity Markets: Evidence from Factor Models with Time-Varying Conditional Skewness," Departmental Working Papers wp0116, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
    3. Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes, 2005. "Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 3(2), pages 251-265.
    4. Chris Brooks, 2005. "Autoregressive Conditional Kurtosis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 399-421.
    5. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
    6. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2008. "Comovements in international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-45, February.
    7. Pedro Alberto Morettin & Clélia Maria de Castro Toloi & Chang Chiann & José Carlos Simon de Miranda, 2010. "Wavelet Smoothed Empirical Copula Estimators," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 8(3), pages 263-281.
    8. Claudio Morana, 2008. "International stock markets comovements: the role of economic and financial integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 333-359, September.
    9. Shlomo Yitzhaki, 2003. "Gini’s Mean difference: a superior measure of variability for non-normal distributions," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 285-316.
    10. Koirala, Krishna H. & Mishra, Ashok K. & D'Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mehlhorn, Joey E., 2015. "Energy prices and agricultural commodity prices: Testing correlation using copulas method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 430-436.
    11. Hashmi, Aamir R. & Tay, Anthony S., 2007. "Global regional sources of risk in equity markets: Evidence from factor models with time-varying conditional skewness," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 430-453, April.
    12. repec:bla:ausecp:v:56:y:2017:i:2:p:134-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:409-418 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:13:y:2010:i:02:n:s0219024910005759 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Eduardo F. L. de Melo & Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes, 2009. "Local Estimation of Copula Based Value-at-Risk," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 7(1), pages 29-50.
    16. Fortin, Ines & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2002. "Tail-Dependence in Stock-Return Pairs," Economics Series 126, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    17. Chen, Kuan-Ju & Chen, Kuan-Heng, 2016. "Analysis of Energy and Agricultural Commodity Markets with the Policy Mandated: A Vine Copula-based ARMA-EGARCH Model," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236028, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Junker, Markus & Szimayer, Alex & Wagner, Niklas, 2006. "Nonlinear term structure dependence: Copula functions, empirics, and risk implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1171-1199, April.
    19. Söehnke Bartram & Stephen Taylor & Yaw-Huei Wang, 2004. "The Euro and European Financial Market Integration," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 49, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 13 Oct 2004.
    20. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    21. Ane, Thierry & Labidi, Chiraz, 2006. "Spillover effects and conditional dependence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 417-442.
    22. Patton, Andrew J, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt3fc1c8hw, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international correlation; market integration; Arch; stock indices; exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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