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Conditional dependency of financial series : an application of copulas

  • ROCKINGER, Michael
  • JONDEAU, Eric

    (Banque de France, DEER)

We develop a new methodology that measures conditional dependency. We achieve this by using copula functions that link marginal distributions, here chosen to obey a GARCH-type model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis. We apply this model to daily returns of stock-market indices. We find strong evidence of persistence in dependency both for local currency and $ US denominated series. For European stock markets, we also find evidence that large simultaneous returns of either sign lead to higher subsequent dependency. We show that dependency changes through time, as well. For stock markets within Europe, dependency increased whereas it decreased since the mid 90s when involving the S&P 500 or the Nikkei. We also suggest extensions for conditional asset pricing models involving time variation of co-skewness and co-kurtosis.

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Paper provided by HEC Paris in its series Les Cahiers de Recherche with number 723.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:0723
Contact details of provider: Postal: HEC Paris, 78351 Jouy-en-Josas cedex, France
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  1. Rockinger, Michael & Jondeau, Eric, 2002. "Entropy densities with an application to autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 119-142, January.
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  23. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  25. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
  26. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  27. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni, 1985. "Arbitrage Equilibrium with Skewed Asset Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 299-313, September.
  28. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
  29. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
  30. Ratner, Mitchell, 1992. "Portfolio diversification and the inter-temporal stability of international stock indices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 67-77.
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