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Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics

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  • Flood, Robert P
  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

Exchange rate regimes differ primarily by the activity of the exchange rate, not observable macroeconomic ‘fundamentals’. Fixed exchange rates are typically stable and floating exchange rates are volatile, but macro phenomena are regime-independent. Fundamentals only seem to be relevant for exchange rates at low frequencies or when inflation is high. A basic task of international finance is explaining these cross-regime differences in exchange rate volatility. The evidence suggests that a switch in exchange rate policy is accompanied by a change in market structure; macroeconomic considerations are superfluous. We formalize this observation in a non-linear model with multiple equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1944
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    Keywords

    Equilibrium; Frequency; Linear; Monetary; Multiple; Noise; Regime; shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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