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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: VAR Evidence for Chile

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  • Santiago Justel
  • Andrés Sansone

Abstract

This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to different price indices in Chile. The analysis is carried out with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with block exogeneity restrictions. Models were estimated using monthly data for Chile from January 1987 to December 2013. Average pass-through ratio to total CPI is estimated to be between 0.1 and 0.2 in the medium term. These results indicate a lower ERPT after the adoption of inflation targeting. Moreover, from 2002 onwards the effect of an exchange rate movement takes around four quarters to pass-through completely, compared to one to two years for the full sample.

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  • Santiago Justel & Andrés Sansone, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: VAR Evidence for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 747, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:747
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    2. Mariana García-Schmidt & Javier García-Cicco, 2020. "A TNT DSGE Model for Chile: Explaining the ERPT," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 868, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Alex Oktay, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: the Swiss franc appreciation of 2015," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Alberto Naudon & Joaquín Vial, 2016. "The evolution of inflation in Chile since 2000," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 93-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. García-Cicco, Javier & García-Schmidt, Mariana, 2020. "Revisiting the exchange rate pass through: A general equilibrium perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Albagli, Elias & Calani, Mauricio & Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij & Marcel, Mario & Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2020. "Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile," CEPR Discussion Papers 14967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Gabriela Contreras & Francisco Pinto, 2016. "Traspaso de tipo de cambio nominal a inflación desagregada en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 154-170, August.
    8. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "What Do We Know of Exchange Rate Pass Through?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:5, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    9. Mario Canales & Bernabe Lopez-Martin, 2021. "Uncertainty, Risk, and Price-Setting: Evidence from CPI Microdata," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 908, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. McGurk, Zachary, 2020. "US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-66.
    11. Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2016/129, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    13. Paul Christian Espinoza Ipanaque, 2023. "Pass-through del tipo de cambio en América Latina," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, Octubre -.
    14. Yavuz Arslan & Martina Jašová & Elod Takáts, 2016. "The inflation process," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 23-40, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Omer Fazil Emek & Faruk Dusunceli & Omer Doru, 2021. "Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect on Domestic Producer and Consumer Prices in Turkey," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 163-190, June.
    16. Michael Pedersen, 2016. "Propagation of inflationary shocks in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(3), pages 004-025, December.
    17. Mariana García-Schmidt & Javier García-Cicco, 2022. "A TNT Model for Chile: Explaining the ERPT," Working Papers 107, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    18. Michael Pedersen, 2019. "The impact of commodity price shocks in a copper-rich economy: the case of Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1291-1318, October.
    19. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    20. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Food and Energy Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10164, CESifo.

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