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Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment

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  • Martins Bitans

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

The paper examines the exchange rate pass-through in a set of 13 East European countries during the period of 1993–2003. The pass-through estimates are derived from a recursive VAR model in first differences, and the impact of exchange rate changes on both producer and consumer prices is studied. The estimates obtained for two sub-sample periods generally show an incomplete pass-through over a two-year horizon. In addition, the results imply a considerable cross-country variation and suggest that a significant decline (by nearly 50%) in the pass-through is possible over time. In particular, it is found that the exchange rate pass-through in East European countries is positively and statistically significantly related to the average inflation rate and degree of exchange rate persistence. Moreover, the results confirm the existence of a strong relationship between the pass-through and changes in the import structure. Finally, there is some limited evidence that the magnitude of exchange rate pass-through might be positively related to the degree of country's openness to foreign trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.
    • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200404
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    2. Igor Velickovski & Geoffrey Thomas Pugh, 2011. "Constraints on exchange rate flexibility in transition economies: a meta-regression analysis of exchange rate pass-through," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(27), pages 4111-4125.
    3. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Y. Ponomarev & P. Trunin & A. Ulyukayev, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Russia," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 3.
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    6. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "An Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Baltic States," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Simola, Heli, 2018. "The pass-through to consumer prices in CIS economies: The role of exchange rates, commodities and other common factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 186-217.
    8. ABBAS, Shah & Nguyen, V.C. & YANFU, Zhu & Nguyen, Huu Tinh, 2020. "The Impact of China Exchange Rate Policy on its Trading Partners Evidence Based on the GVAR Model," OSF Preprints cwvqb, Center for Open Science.
    9. Idrisov, Georgy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Ponomarev, Yury (Пономарев, Юрий) & Pleskachev, Yury Andreevich (Плескачев, Юрий Андреевич), 2016. "Analysis of Joint Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Import Duty Rates in the Russian Economy [Анализ Совместного Эффекта Переноса Обменного Курса И Ввозных Пошлин В Цены В Российской Экономике]," Working Papers 1666, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2020. "Revisiting the pass-through of exchange rate in the transition economies: New evidence from new EU member states," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through in central and eastern European EU Member States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, March.
    13. Andrejs Zlobins, 2023. "Is There a Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of QE in Latvia?," Working Papers 2023/05, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    15. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
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    17. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    18. Pavel Trunin & Kirill Rogov & Natalia Shagaida & Mikhail Khromov & Sergey Tsukhlo & Alexander Deryugin & Alexander Knobel & Yuri Bobylev & M.K. Kirillova, 2015. "Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 1, pages 1-28, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pass-through of exchange rate; recursive VAR model; Exchange Rate Mechanism II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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