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The Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in CIS Economies: the Role of Exchange Rates, Commodities and Other Common Factors

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  • Mariarosaria Comunale

    (Bank of Lithuania)

  • Heli Simola

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This empirical study considers the pass-through of key nominal exchange rates and commodity prices to consumer prices in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), taking into account the effect of idiosyncratic and common factors influencing prices. In order to do that, given the relatively short window of available quarterly observations (1999–2014), we choose heterogeneous panel frameworks and control for cross-sectional dependence. The exchange rate pass-through is found to be relatively high and rapid for CIS countries in the case of the nominal effective exchange rate, but not significant for the bilateral rate with the US dollar. We also show that global factors in combination with financial gaps and commodity prices are important. In the case of large rate swings, the exchange rate pass-through of the bilateral rate with the US dollar becomes significant and similar to that of the nominal effective exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariarosaria Comunale & Heli Simola, 2016. "The Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in CIS Economies: the Role of Exchange Rates, Commodities and Other Common Factors," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 35, Bank of Lithuania.
    • Handle: RePEc:lie:wpaper:35
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    Cited by:

    1. Faryna, Oleksandr, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through and cross-country spillovers: Some evidence from Ukraine and Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "An investigation of the exchange rate pass-through in the Baltic states," CAMA Working Papers 2019-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Vugar Rahimov & Nigar Jafarova & Fuad Ganbarov, 2017. "The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to CPI and its components in Oil-Exporting CIS Countries," IHEID Working Papers 06-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Simola, Heli, 2018. "The pass-through to consumer prices in CIS economies: The role of exchange rates, commodities and other common factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 186-217.
    5. Abdorasoul Sadeghi & Hussein Marzban & Ali Hussein Samadi & Karim Azarbaiejani & Parviz Rostamzadeh, 2022. "Financial intermediaries and speculation in the foreign exchange market: the role of monetary policy in Iran’s economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine.
    7. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami, 2020. "Revisiting the West African Commonwealth Countries’ Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(1), pages 70-77, March.
    8. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Effects of external shocks on Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2019, Bank of Finland, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price and exchange rate on disaggregation price inflation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commonwealth of Independent States; Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Commodity prices; Dynamic Panel Data; Inflation; Exchange Rates; Cross-sectional dependence; Financial cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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