Exchange Rates and Inflation under EMU: An Update
In our recent Economic Policy article(Honohan and Lane, 2003), we argued that the strength of the US dollar 1999-2001 had an important impact on inflation divergence within the EMU and in particular the surge in Ireland’s inflation to over 7 per cent. This hypothesis has been subjected to a grueling out-of-sample test: would the dollar’s subsequent weakness contribute to inflation convergence and in particular to a fall in Irish inflation? Fortunately for us, the theory has passed the test with flying colours. Irish inflation stopped dead in its tracks: consumer prices were unchanged between May and November of 2003. Regression analysis on quarterly inflation data across EMU members 1999.1-2004.1 confirms the importance of the exchange rate channel, although pinning down the exact dynamic specification will require a further span of data.
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- Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2004.
"Euro area inflation differentials,"
Working Paper Series
0388, European Central Bank.
- Papell, David H., 2006. "The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 447-467, March.
- Philip R. Lane & Patrick Honohan, 2003.
"Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU,"
Trinity Economics Papers
20034, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp05, IIIS.
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