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The effects of US economic and financial crises on euro area convergence

Author

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  • Fabio Bagliano

    (University of Turin and CeRP)

  • Claudio Morana

    (Università del Piemonte Orientale and CeRP)

Abstract

As economic and financial integration between the US and the euro area is strong, assessing whether the recent US crisis may affect the process of real and nominal convergence within the euro area is important. The paper addresses this issue in the framework of a large-scale open economy macroeconometric model, featuring 14 euro area member countries, the USA, and 35 advanced and emerging economies. The results point to a likely contribution of US economic and financial crises to real divergence in the euro area, potentially affecting first, second and third moments of the output growth distribution; on the other hand, implications for nominal convergence are less clear-cut.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The effects of US economic and financial crises on euro area convergence," CeRP Working Papers 99, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  • Handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:99
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area convergence; Great Recession; financial crisis; economic crisis; factor vector autoregressive models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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