IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/4583.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rates and Inflation Under EMU: An Update

Author

Listed:
  • Honohan, Patrick
  • Lane, Philip R.

Abstract

In our recent Economic Policy article (Honohan and Lane, 2003), we argued that the strength of the US dollar 1999-2001 had an important impact on inflation divergence within the EMU and in particular the surge in Ireland’s inflation to over 7%. This hypothesis has been subjected to a grueling out-of-sample test: would the dollar’s subsequent weakness contribute to inflation convergence and in particular to a fall in Irish inflation? Fortunately for us, the theory has passed the test with flying colours. Irish inflation stopped dead in its tracks: consumer prices were unchanged between May and November of 2003. Regression analysis on quarterly inflation data across EMU members 1999.1-2004.1 confirms the importance of the exchange rate channel, although pinning down the exact dynamic specification will require a further span of data.

Suggested Citation

  • Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R., 2004. "Exchange Rates and Inflation Under EMU: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 4583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4583
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394, October.
    2. Papell, David H., 2006. "The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 447-467, March.
    3. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    2. Lane, Philip R., 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Palenzuela, 2011. "Inflation Differentials in a Currency Area: Facts, Explanations and Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 189-233, April.
    4. Maela Giofré, 2012. "Convergence of EMU Equity Portfolios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 381-419, April.
    5. Balázs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2127, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. repec:eee:riibaf:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:186-217 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
    8. Martina Cecioni, 2010. "External trade and monetary policy in a currency area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 738, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Lopez, Claude, 2009. "GLS-detrending and regime-wise stationarity testing in small samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 99-101, August.
    10. Patrick Honohan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2006. "Ireland in EMU - More Shocks, Less Insulation?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 263-294.
    11. Marek Dabrowski, 2005. "A Strategy for EMU Enlargement," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0290, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    12. Dridi, Jemma & Nguyen, Anh D. M., 2017. "Inflation Convergence In East African Countries," MPRA Paper 80393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Égert, Balázs, 2011. "Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other culprits," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 208-229, June.
    14. Václav Žďárek, 2009. "Challenges for the new EU member states on the road to the Eurozone," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 157-177, July.
    15. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2014. "Euro-dollar polarization and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-throughs within the euro zone," MPRA Paper 57704, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2014.
    17. David López-Salido & Fernando Restoy & Javier Vallés, 2005. "Inflation differentials in EMU: the Spanish case," Working Papers 0514, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    18. Balázs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2127, CESifo Group Munich.
    19. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:138:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kristin Langwasser, 2009. "Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 115-133, July.
    21. Alan Ahearne & Jürgen von Hagen, 2006. "European perspectives on global imbalances," Working Papers 50, Bruegel.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; exchange rates; inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.