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Catching-up and Inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other Culprits

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  • Balazs Egert

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel’s Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-market service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation is more persistant and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Balazs Egert, 2010. "Catching-up and Inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other Culprits," CESifo Working Paper Series 3110, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Andreas Wörgötter, 2013. "Slovakia: The Consequences of Joining the Euro Aea before the Crisis for a Small Catching-up Economy," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(1), pages 57-63, May.
    2. D’Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2015. "The role of the exchange rate regime in the process of real and nominal convergence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-37.
    3. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
    4. Hubert Gabrisch, 2015. "Net Capital Flows To And The Real Exchange Rate Of Western Balkan Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(205), pages 31-52, April – J.
    5. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Klein, Caroline & Price, Robert & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2013. "Slovakia: A Catching Up Euro Area Member In and Out of the Crisis," IZA Policy Papers 55, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Martina Alexová, 2012. "What determines inflation?," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 345-369.
    8. D'Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2013. "Labor Market Institutions and the Response of Inflation to Macro Shocks in the EU: A Two-Sector Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 7616, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Ansgar Belke & Ulrich Haskamp & Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2015. "Beyond Balassa and Samuelson: Real Convergence, Capital Flows, and Competitiveness in Greece," ROME Working Papers 201506, ROME Network.
    10. Mirjana Miletic, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Revised Analysis of Panel Data Cointegration Tests," Working papers 22, National Bank of Serbia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; inflation; Balassa-Samuelson; real convergence; catching up; Bayesian model average; non-linearity;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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