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Catching-up and inflation in transition economies: the Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited

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  • Dubravko Mihaljek
  • Marc Klau

Abstract

This paper estimates the Balassa-Samuelson effects for 11 countries in central and eastern Europe on a disaggregated set of quarterly data covering the period from the mid-1990s to the first quarter of 2008. The Balassa-Samuelson effects are clearly present and explain around 24% of inflation differentials vis-à-vis the euro area (about 1.2 percentage points on average); and around 84% of domestic relative price differentials between non-tradables and tradables; or about 16% of total domestic inflation (about 1.1 percentage points on average). The paper presents mixed evidence on whether the Balassa-Samuelson effects have declined since 2001 compared with the second half of the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Catching-up and inflation in transition economies: the Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited," BIS Working Papers 270, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Borgersen, Trond-Arne & King, Roswitha M., 2011. "Reallocation and restructuring: A generalization of the Balassa–Samuelson effect," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 287-298.
    2. Égert, Balázs, 2011. "Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other culprits," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 208-229, June.
    3. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    4. Holger Wolf, 2012. "Eurozone entry criteria after the crisis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6, March.
    5. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    6. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis, 2013. "Is the EMU government bond market a playground for asymmetries?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 21-31.
    7. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2014. "Harrod, Balassa, and Samuelson (re)visit Eastern Europe," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Mirjana Miletić, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Revised Analysis of Panel Data Cointegration Tests," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 475-499, September.
    9. Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
    10. Harashima, Taiji, 2011. "A Mechanism of Inflation Differentials and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 28121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Daan Steenkamp, 2013. "Productivity and the New Zealand Dollar: Balassa-Samuelson tests on sectoral data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Todorov Ivan Krumov, 2014. "Macroeconomic Trends in the New Member Countries of the European Union Before the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(2), pages 197-217, December.
    13. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedgenidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
    14. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
    15. Veronika Tengely, 2020. "In Search of the Lost Balassa–Samuelson Effect – The Changing Role of Services in the 21st Century," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 5-27.
    16. Silvia Kirova, 2014. "Currency regimes and macroeconomic indicators of the derogation EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 80-99.
    17. Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Spillover effects from euro area monetary policy across the EU: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Kiel Working Papers 2033, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    18. Marjan Senjur, 2010. "Differential inflation, Phillips curves, and price competitiveness in a new euro-member country," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 253-273, November.
    19. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2020. "Revisiting the pass-through of exchange rate in the transition economies: New evidence from new EU member states," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

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    Keywords

    Balassa-Samuelson effect; productivity; inflation; transition; convergence; European monetary union; Maastricht criteria;
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