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Catching-up and inflation in transition economies: the Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited

  • Dubravko Mihaljek
  • Marc Klau

This paper estimates the Balassa-Samuelson effects for 11 countries in central and eastern Europe on a disaggregated set of quarterly data covering the period from the mid-1990s to the first quarter of 2008. The Balassa-Samuelson effects are clearly present and explain around 24% of inflation differentials vis-à-vis the euro area (about 1.2 percentage points on average); and around 84% of domestic relative price differentials between non-tradables and tradables; or about 16% of total domestic inflation (about 1.1 percentage points on average). The paper presents mixed evidence on whether the Balassa-Samuelson effects have declined since 2001 compared with the second half of the 1990s.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 270.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:270
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  1. Balázs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2127, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
  5. Balázs Egert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July.
  6. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  7. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
  9. Laszlo Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Economic Transformation and Real Exchange Rates in the 2000s: The Balassa-Samuelson Connection," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2001_1, UNECE.
  10. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary WÛjcik, 2004. "Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 153-179, 03.
  11. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Markova & Jiri Podpiera, 2002. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Working Papers 2002/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  12. Martin Cincibuch & Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: Real Appreciation in Tradables in Transition Countries," Working Papers 2004/09, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  13. Georgi Chukalev, 2002. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the Bulgarian Economy," Working paper series 22002en, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
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