IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eea/boewps/wp2008-4.html

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Karsten Staehr

Abstract

This paper discusses the prospects of the new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe joining the European Economic and Monetary Union in the short and medium term. The countries must attain and sustain inflation rates sufficiently low to abide by the Maastricht inflation criterion, but this is complicated by the process of real convergence exerting upward pressure on the inflation rate. The paper discusses different strategies which the new EU countries can apply. It is argued that no one-size-fits-all policy is available and that some countries might be better off postponing EMU membership in pursuit of other goals. Still, the special circumstances concerning the Central and Eastern European EU countries suggest that the process of admission of new countries to the EMU should be adaptive and pragmatic

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Staehr, 2008. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2008-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eestipank.ee/sites/eestipank.ee/files/publication/en/WorkingPapers/2008/_wp_408.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Balázs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2127, CESifo.
    3. repec:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002-07:i:2:p:273-309 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Staehr, Karsten, 2008. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 46-69, March.
    5. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    7. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
    8. Égert, Balázs, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in transition: Do we understand what we see?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2002, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Broda, Christian, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes and national price levels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 52-81, September.
    10. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2006. "Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 424-442, December.
    11. Egert, Balazs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Lahreche-Revil, Amina, 2006. "Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3393-3406, December.
    12. György Szapáry, 2001. "Maastricht and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Transition Countries during the Run-Up to EMU," Economics Working Papers 006, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    13. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
    14. Feldstein, Martin, 2000. "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 345-354, May.
    15. Mr. Ashoka Mody & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Ms. Stefania Fabrizio, 2007. "The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 2007/097, International Monetary Fund.
    16. F. Gulcin Ozkan & Anne Sibert & Alan Sutherland, 2004. "Monetary union and the Maastricht inflation criterion: The accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 635-652, December.
    17. Martin Cincibuch & Jiří Podpiera, 2006. "Beyond Balassa–Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(3), pages 547-573, July.
    18. Jonas, Jiri, 2006. "Euro adoption and Maastricht criteria: Rules or discretion?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 328-345, December.
    19. Mark A. Wynne & Diego Rodriguez‐Palenzuela, 2004. "Measurement Bias in the HICP: What do we know and What do we need to know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 79-112, February.
    20. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0404011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. N/A, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Bruegel Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    22. Jonas Fischer & Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2007. "101 Proposals to reform the Stability and Growth Pact. Why so many? A Survey," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 267, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    23. Peter B. Kenen & Ellen E. Meade, 2003. "EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?," Policy Briefs PB03-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    24. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-286, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zsolt Darvas, 2009. "The Baltic Challenge and Euro-Area Entry," Bruegel Policy Contributions 357, Bruegel.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Regling & Servaas Deroose & Reinhard Felke & Paul Kutos, 2010. "The Euro After Its First Decade : Weathering the Financial Storm and Enlarging the Euro Area," Governance Working Papers 22817, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2007. "The Maastricht inflation criterion : what is the effect of expansion of the European Union ?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-11, Bank of Estonia, revised 14 Sep 2007.
    3. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2010. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 687-708, June.
    4. John Beirne, 2009. "Vulnerability of inflation in the new EU Member States to country-specific and global factors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1420-1431.
    5. Kowalski, Tadeusz & Kowalski, Pawel & Wihlborg, Clas, 2007. "Poland. The EMU entry strategy vs. the monetary issues," MPRA Paper 42599, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    6. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 130618, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    7. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.
    8. N/A, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Bruegel Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    9. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    10. John Lewis, 2011. "How has the Financial Crisis Affected the Eurozone Accession Outlook in Central and Eastern Europe?," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. D'Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2015. "Labour Market Institutions and Inflation Differentials in the EU," IZA Discussion Papers 9389, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2007. "The Maastricht inflation criterion : what is the effect of expansion of the European Union ?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-11, Bank of Estonia, revised 14 Sep 2007.
    13. Kowalski, Tadeusz & Pietrzykowski, Maciej, 2010. "The economic and monetary union vs. shifts in competitiveness of member states," MPRA Paper 33995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2009. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3, pages 1-24.
    15. Federico Ravenna & Giovanni Lombardo, 2009. "Trade and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 784, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2006. "Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 424-442, December.
    17. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i::p:687-708 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Balázs Világi, 2004. "Dual inflation and real exchange rate in new open economy macroeconomics," MNB Working Papers 2004/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    19. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Catching-up and inflation in transition economies: the Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited," BIS Working Papers 270, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2020. "Revisiting the pass-through of exchange rate in the transition economies: New evidence from new EU member states," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2008-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peeter Luikmel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgovee.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.