IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States

  • Masso, Jaan
  • Staehr, Karsten

The paper seeks to explain the inflationary dynamics in the Baltic countries since the mid-1990s. While single-equation estimations generally yield poor results, panel data estimations provide statistically and economically satisfactory findings. Our main result is that the observed gradual disinflation can to a large extent be explained by adjustment to international prices. Stringent fixed exchange rate systems have exerted downward pressure on inflation both directly and via expectations of future inflation. Measures of excess capacity in the labour market have no effect on inflation, while industrial output gaps have some explanatory power. Real oil price shocks have an immediate but short-lived impact on inflation.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B7CPK-4G361P9-2/2/16c925a5a8bbea10d58a3887ffcc0666
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.

Volume (Year): 19 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 281-303

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:19:y:2005:i:2:p:281-303
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  2. Paloviita , Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Lithuania; History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 02/127, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  5. de Haan, Jakob & Berger, Helge & van Fraassen, Erik, 2001. "How to reduce inflation: an independent central bank or a currency board? The experience of the Baltic countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 218-243, September.
  6. David Dupuis, 2004. "The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Competing Specifications for the United States," Working Papers 04-31, Bank of Canada.
  7. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
  8. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  9. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  10. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 02/197, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Balázs Egert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July.
  12. Elmar B. Koch, 1997. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Central Europe - a Survey of Some Issues," Working Papers 24, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  13. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  14. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  15. Eamets, Raul & Masso, Jaan, 2004. "Labour Market Flexibility and Employment Protection Regulation in the Baltic States," IZA Discussion Papers 1147, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Tiiu Paas & Raul Eamets & Jaan Masso & Marit Room, 2003. "Labour Market Flexibility And Migration In The Baltic States: Macro Evidences," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 16, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
  17. Andres Sutt & Basil B. Zavoiceo & Adalbert Knöbl, 2002. "The Estonian Currency Board; Its Introduction and Role in the Early Success of Estonia's Transition to a Market Economy," IMF Working Papers 02/96, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  19. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
  20. Raul Eamets & Urmas Varblane & Kaja Sostra, 2003. "External Macroeconomic Shocks and the Estonian economy: How did the Russian Financial Crisis affect Estonian Unemployment and Foreign Trade?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 5-24, July.
  21. Marit Hinnosaar, 2001. "Potential output estimates for Central and East European countries using production function method," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2001-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Oct 2001.
  22. Arratibel, Olga & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 0132, European Central Bank.
  23. Martins Bitans & Dace Slakota & Ivars Tillers, 2001. "Price Dynamics in Latvia - Experience and Future Prospects," Working Papers 2001/01, Latvijas Banka.
  24. Sutela, Pekka, 2001. "Managing capital flows in Estonia and Latvia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  25. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/56, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  27. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  28. Roberto Golinelli & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp09, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
  29. Thierry Pujol & Mark E. L. Griffiths, 1996. "Moderate Inflation in Poland; A Real Story," IMF Working Papers 96/57, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Elisabetta Falcetti & Martin Raiser & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition," Working Papers 55, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  31. Fabrizio Iacone & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting in the CEE Accession Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp08, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
  32. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  33. Alf Vanags, 1998. "Macroeconomic stabilisation and central bank policy in Latvia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 203-215.
  34. Fabiani, Silvia & Morgan, Julian, 2003. "Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 0213, European Central Bank.
  35. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  36. John DiNardo & Mark P. Moore, 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 7328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  38. Vincent Hogan, 1998. "Explaining the Recent Behavior of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States," IMF Working Papers 98/145, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Balázs Egert, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale, Tradable Goods, Regulated Prices and Other Culprits," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 259-286, 02.
  40. Peter Doyle & Carlo Cottarelli, 1999. "Disinflation in Transition: 1993-1997," IMF Occasional Papers 179, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:19:y:2005:i:2:p:281-303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.