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The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy

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  • John DiNardo
  • Mark P. Moore

Abstract

Expanding on an approach suggested by Ashenfelter (1984), we extend the Phillips curve to an open economy and exploit panel data to estimate the textbook 'expectations augmented' Phillips curve with a market-based and observable measure of inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly data from 9 OECD countries and the simplest econometric specification, we estimate the Phillips curve with the same functional form for the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Our analysis suggests that although changing expectations played a role in creating the empirical failure of the Phillips Curve in the 1970s, supply shocks were at least as important.

Suggested Citation

  • John DiNardo & Mark P. Moore, 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 7328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7328 Note: LS
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
    2. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
    3. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Plasmans & Jacob Engwerda & Bas van Aarle & Tomasz Michalak & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2006. "Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies In The Emu: Spillovers, Asymmetries And Institutions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 461-484, September.
    2. Esu, Godwin & Atan, Johnson, 2017. "The Philip's Curve in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 82112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Pitchford, John, 2000. "The Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 386-400, December.
    5. Fumitaka Furuoka & Qaiser Munir & Hanafiah Harvey, 2013. "Does the Phillips curve exist in the Philippines?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2001-2016.
    6. Ismael, Mohanad & Sadeq, Tareq, 2016. "Does Phillips Exist in Palestine? An Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 70245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yuen Chi-Wa, 2002. "Openness And The Output-Inflation Tradeoff: Floating Vs. Fixed Exchange Rates," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 1-26.
    8. Lavan Mahadeva & Katerina Smidkova, 2004. "Modelling transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0402032, EconWPA.
    9. Uwe Hassler & Michael Neugart, 2003. "Inflation-unemployment tradeoff and regional labor market data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 321-334, April.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:16:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    12. Sell, Friedrich L. & Reinisch, David C., 2013. "How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?," Working Papers in Economics 2013,1, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    13. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2008. "A Phillips Curve for the Dominican Republic," MPRA Paper 54114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Fumitaka Furuoka & Chong Mun Ho, 2009. "Phillips curves and openness: New evidence from selected Asian economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 253-264.
    15. Chorng-Huey Wong & Eric V. Clifton & Gene L. Leon, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off," IMF Working Papers 01/166, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2007. "Does the “Phillips Curve” Really Exist? New Empirical Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(16), pages 1-14.
    17. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Lavan Mahadeva & Katerina Smidkova, 2001. "What Is the Appropriate Rate of Disinflation to Be Targeted in the Czech Economy?," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/33, Czech National Bank.
    19. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    20. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Fernando PÈrez de GracÌa Hidalgo, "undated". "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un an·lisis empÌrico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA.
    21. Yeh Kuo-chun, 2009. "Will a Taiwan-China Monetary Union be Feasible? Lessons from Europe," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-36, March.
    22. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González & Oscar Dejuan, 2012. "Investment, Financial Markets, and Uncertainty," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_743, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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