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Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile

  • Jorge E. Restrepo
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    The purpose of this paper is to find a set of estimates for the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment ( NAIRU ) for Chile. Measuring the NAIRU permits to build the unemployment gap, which provides a complementary measure of aggregate demand and of the output gap. It is generally used by central banks as part of the set of indicators with which they project inflation and make policy decisions. Initially, an estimate is obtained from a purely statistical method (unknown components). Then calculations of both constant and variable NAIRU are made on the basis of Phillips curve equations. A final measure of NAIRU is obtained, based on an estimated autoregressive vector, identified with long-run restrictions. The various estimations yield similar results and indicate that the most likely point estimate of the current NAIRU is between 7.6% and 8.1%, with a 95% confidence interval that goes from 6.4% to 9.3%. This wide interval gives an idea of the highdegree of uncertainty regarding its point estimation.

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    File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc361.pdf
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    Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 361.

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    Date of creation: May 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:361
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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
    5. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2000. "An Estimation of the Nonlinear Philips Curve in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001975, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Jordi Galí & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations; How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," IMF Working Papers 04/234, International Monetary Fund.
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    10. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
    11. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers 8940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
    14. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    16. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
    17. Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark, 1997. "Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating," IMF Working Papers 97/17, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    19. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
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