Is There a Long Run Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off in Sweden?
We present a small open economy version of Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) and, based on Swedish data, we show that there exists a negatively sloped long run Phillips curve. Regressions on quarterly data 1963-2000 and estimated inflation expectations show that this Phillips curve is relatively robust and that an unemployment rate of close to two percent is consistent with an inflation target slightly above its present level of two percent. However, estimations based on survey data suggest that a considerably higher inflation rate, of around four percent, is necessary to yield a lowest sustainable unemployment rate. These latter estimates seem better adjusted to the recent Swedish macroeconomic experiences. If Sweden enters the EMU, and if the ECB targets inflation at a lower level than the Riksbank, employment as well as output will be lower than today. Moreover, if the inflation-unemployment trade-off differs widely across the member states of the EMU, then a single inflation rate in the EMU-area implies that long run unemployment rates will also differ across the member countries.
|Date of creation:||28 Dec 2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Wallingatan 38, 4th floor S-111 24 Stockholm|
Web page: http://www.fief.se/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Holden,S., 2001.
"Monetary policy and nominal rigidities under low inflation,"
16/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Steinar Holden, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Nominal Rigidities under Low Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 481, CESifo Group Munich.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
- Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
- George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
- King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
- Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
- Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)