IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Is There a Long Run Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off in Sweden?

  • Lundborg, Per

    (Trade Union Institute for Economic Research)

  • Sacklén, Hans

    (Trade Union Institute for Economic Research)

We present a small open economy version of Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) and, based on Swedish data, we show that there exists a negatively sloped long run Phillips curve. Regressions on quarterly data 1963-2000 and estimated inflation expectations show that this Phillips curve is relatively robust and that an unemployment rate of close to two percent is consistent with an inflation target slightly above its present level of two percent. However, estimations based on survey data suggest that a considerably higher inflation rate, of around four percent, is necessary to yield a lowest sustainable unemployment rate. These latter estimates seem better adjusted to the recent Swedish macroeconomic experiences. If Sweden enters the EMU, and if the ECB targets inflation at a lower level than the Riksbank, employment as well as output will be lower than today. Moreover, if the inflation-unemployment trade-off differs widely across the member states of the EMU, then a single inflation rate in the EMU-area implies that long run unemployment rates will also differ across the member countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/fiefwp/papers/WP173.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Trade Union Institute for Economic Research in its series Working Paper Series with number 173.

as
in new window

Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 28 Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:fiefwp:0173
Contact details of provider: Postal: Wallingatan 38, 4th floor S-111 24 Stockholm
Phone: +46-8-240450
Fax: +46-8-207313
Web page: http://www.fief.se/Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
  2. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  3. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
  4. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  6. Steinar Holden, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Nominal Rigidities under Low Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 481, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  8. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
  9. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:fiefwp:0173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sune Karlsson)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.