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UK Philips Curves and Monetary Policy

  • Andrew Haldane
  • Danny Quah

This paper documents some stylized facts on evolving UK Phillips curves, and shows how these differ from their US versions. We interpret UK Phillips curve dynamics in a positive theory of monetary policy û how policy-maker attitudes on the Phillips curve have evolved since the 1950s û rather than, more traditionally, as interaction between exogenous demand and supply disturbances. Combining this framework with reasoned conjectures on how policy-makers' beliefs have changed helps explain some features of the evolving UK Phillips curve. We suggest that correlations suggesting an extreme favorable unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly acknowledging that no tradeoff exists.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0444.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0444
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  4. Mervyn King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? - Conceptual issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 25-52.
  5. Mervyn King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91.
  6. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  8. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  9. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
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