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New Keynesian Phillips curve for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

  • Aurelijus Dabušinskas

    ()

  • Dmitry Kulikov

    ()

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    This paper presents an empirical analysis of the inflation process in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania within the framework of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí et al. (2001). An open economy extension by Leith and Malley (2003) and a NKPC model that explicitly incorporates energy into the average real marginal cost measure are also considered. The primary focus of the paper is to identify and compare the underlying structural parameters of the NKPC model across the three Baltic economies. Empirical NKPC model estimates point to a limited role of the cost measure in determining inflation dynamics in the three Baltic countries. It has been found that the inflation process in these countries primarily depends on inflation expectations and past inflation rates. Price setting flexibility, as measured by the price stickiness parameter, tends to be lower than in the euro area but higher than in the US, while the share of backward-looking price setters is found to be higher on average.

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    File URL: http://www.eestipank.ee/sites/eestipank.ee/files/publication/en/WorkingPapers/2007/_wp_707.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2007-07.

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    Date of creation: 26 Aug 2007
    Date of revision: 26 Aug 2007
    Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2007-07
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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    2. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 1026, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Lawless, Martina & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation," Working Paper Series 0784, European Central Bank.
    5. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jordi Galí & David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips Curve for Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0109, Banco de Espa�a.
      • Jordi Galí & J David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips curve for Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 174-203 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Departmental Working Papers 200112, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    8. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2002. "Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7," Working Papers 2002_8, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-80, July.
    11. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Robert Lucas & Mike Golosov, 2004. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," 2004 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August.
    15. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    16. Edith Gagnon & Hashmat Khan, 2001. "New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures forCanada, the United States, and the Euro Area," Working Papers 01-25, Bank of Canada.
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