IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Hybrid Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence from Transition Economies

In this paper we estimate the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for nine transition economies and examine its ability to explain inflation dynamics. Special emphasis has been made on obtaining a measure of expected inflation directly from consumer surveys via the probability method, as opposed to most similar studies, which employ various proxy or instrumental variables for expected inflation. Unlike similar studies that employ the Generalized Method of Moments in evaluating the hybrid Phillips curve, here we use a dynamic fixed effects (DFE) model, as suggested by recent advances in the estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel models. This empirical investigation leads to the conclusion that there does exist a cointegration relation between inflation, expected inflation, and the output gap (as a proxy for real marginal cost). The long-run coefficients for both independent variables are positive and statistically significant. Moreover, based on the error correction model evaluated, one arrives at a conclusion that the error correction term is statistically significant and of appropriate sign, pointing to a 15 percent quarterly imbalance correction. Furthermore, our results are robust to a variety of dynamic panel estimation procedures.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 61 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 367-383

in new window

Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:61:y:2011:i:4:p:367-383
Contact details of provider: Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  2. Sylvia Kaufmann & Johann Scharler, 2010. "Bank-Lending Standards, the Cost Channel and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 164, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0632, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  4. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2008-63, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  6. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November.
  7. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  9. Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Staff Reports 204, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 811-832, September.
  12. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Forces Driving Inflation in the New EU10 Members," IMF Working Papers 09/51, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  14. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  15. Franta, Michal & Saxa, Branislav & Šmídková, Katerina, 2007. "Inflation persistence: euro area and new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0810, European Central Bank.
  16. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
  17. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  18. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  19. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2004. "The use of real-time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  20. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in the New EU Member States: How Relevant Are External Factors?," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2010-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  21. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & David López-Salido, 2005. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0520, Banco de Espa�a.
  22. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
  23. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data : A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
  24. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  25. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  26. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
  27. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
  28. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
  29. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2008. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and in new EU members: Implications for monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1116-1127, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:61:y:2011:i:4:p:367-383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.