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Inflation Dynamics in the New EU Member States: How Relevant Are External Factors?

Author

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  • Alexander Mihailov
  • Fabio Rumler
  • Johann Scharler

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics in the New EU Member States: How Relevant Are External Factors?," Economics working papers 2009-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2009_13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Forces Driving Inflation in the New EU10 Members," IMF Working Papers 2009/051, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 317-337, April.
    3. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2008. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and in new EU members: Implications for monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1116-1127, November.
    4. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakšić Saša, 2022. "Modelling Determinants of Inflation in CESEE Countries: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 137-169, June.
    2. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "The nature of trade, global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 2007-2031, July.
    3. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    4. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.
    5. Vít Pošta, 2015. "Semi-structural estimates of time-varying NAIRU based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: evidence from Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    6. Kai-Yin Woo & Shu-Kam Lee & Cho-Yiu Joe Ng, 2018. "An Investigation Into The Dynamic Relationship Between Cpi And Ppi: Evidence From The Uk, France And Germany," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1081-1100, July.
    7. Steffen Ahrens & Stephen Sacht, 2014. "Estimating a high-frequency New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 607-628, March.
    8. Mohd, Rafede & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Testing the asymmetric and lead-lag relationship between CPI and PPI: an application of the ARDL and NARDL approaches," MPRA Paper 112500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2014. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and labor unions in SEE and the CIS during the financial crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 309-332.
    10. Gani Ramadani & Predrag Pandiloski, 2019. "Disinflationary Spillovers from The Euro Area into the Countries of Southeastern Europe," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 8(3), pages 65-93.
    11. Ernestas Virbickas, 2012. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 14, Bank of Lithuania.
    12. John Lewis, 2011. "How has the Financial Crisis Affected the Eurozone Accession Outlook in Central and Eastern Europe?," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai & Andries, Alin Marius, 2013. "Decomposing time-frequency relationship between producer price and consumer price indices in Romania through wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 151-159.
    14. Maral Shamloo, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 2011/287, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Martina Basarac & Blanka Škrabiæ & Petar Soriæ, 2011. "The Hybrid Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence from Transition Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 367-383, August.
    16. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "Sectoral inflationary dynamics: cross-country evidence on the open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(1), pages 75-101, February.
    17. Marfatia Hardik A., 2018. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    18. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Rumler, Fabio, 2020. "Inflation forecasting using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a time-varying trend," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 383-393.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Phillips Curve; small open economies; inflation dynamics; new EU member countries; GMM estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices

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